Bitcoin is nearing a critical juncture where seasoned investors must shift their focus from speculative tales to analyzing probabilities. Chris Burniske, formerly of Ark Invest, has outlined a clear and rational approach for identifying when Bitcoin becomes attractive again. His method emphasizes market structure over hype, highlighting key price levels as volatility diminishes and Bitcoin strives to reclaim essential moving averages.
Insights from Chris Burniske
Burniske’s stance is simple yet precise: he has pinpointed crucial price thresholds that matter if the market continues its downward trend but isn’t currently buying. The first significant zone hovers around $80,000—this marks both the recent low in the ongoing bearish phase and the November 2025 bottom. This level could attract dip buyers; however, if overall risk appetite remains weak, it might still break down further.
If I were to consider buying Bitcoin, these are the key areas I’d monitor:
~$80K: Local bottom of current bear cycle & Nov ’25 low
~$74K: April ’25 low during Tariff Tantrum & just below MicroStrategy’s cost basis (~$76K)
~$70K: Upper boundary of previous $50-70K range near 2021 peak
~$58K: Close to 200-week SMA & on-chain cost estimates— Chris Burniske (@cburniske) January 25, 2026
The next critical level lies at approximately $74,000. This price point sits slightly beneath MicroStrategy’s estimated average purchase price near $76,000 and corresponds with April 2025’s Tariff Tantrum-induced dip. It holds significance not only technically but psychologically since institutional benchmarks often trigger pronounced market reactions.
An even more pivotal threshold is around $70,000—the high reached during the 2021 cycle peak and top end of the prior trading range between $50k-$70k. Markets commonly revisit such former resistance points to test whether they can transform into lasting support zones; thus a robust reaction here wouldn’t be unexpected.
Navigating Uncertain Terrain for Bitcoin
A deeper decline would push Bitcoin into genuine long-term valuation territory. The widely watched 200-week simple moving average converges near on-chain cost basis approximations at about $58,000 while realized value metrics hover close to $56,000. Historically this area signals strong accumulation opportunities amid major corrections.
The final psychological barrier identified by Burniske lies at or below roughly $50,000—a level where bearish narratives proclaiming “Bitcoin is dead” tend to resurface forcefully alongside panic selling and emotional fatigue—conditions typically preceding sustained bottoms in markets.
The emphasis here rests more on investor psychology than exact numbers themselves. Burniske openly states his indifference toward short-term directional moves in Bitcoin’s price: he maintains holdings with diversification when prices rise but adds more BTC plus select altcoins during downturns—a disciplined capital allocation strategy rather than an attempt at prediction.