Jurrien Timmer, the global macro director at Fidelity, has raised doubts about Bitcoin’s recent surge to $95,000, questioning whether this move signals a genuine trend reversal or merely a deceptive “countertrend” rally.
The executive cautioned that Bitcoin’s momentum curve appears as an extreme anomaly, suggesting that additional adjustments might be necessary before the cryptocurrency finds a true bottom.
In his market update on Friday, Timmer contrasted Bitcoin’s lackluster performance with gold’s strong upward trajectory. Gold continues to reach new highs as it remains a dependable safeguard against worldwide monetary expansion.
The $116 Trillion Money Supply Context
Timmer began his analysis by highlighting the ever-growing global money supply, which now totals an astonishing $116.5 trillion and is expanding at an annual rate of 11.4%.
According to him, gold is fulfilling its intended role perfectly in this scenario: “Gold has consistently performed exceptionally well amid these shifting global economic conditions,” he stated.
On the other hand, Bitcoin presents a more ambiguous picture. After experiencing a sharp correction, it rebounded from $80,000 up to around $95,000.
“It remains uncertain whether this correction phase has ended and if the upward trend will continue or if the jump from $80k to $95k represents just a temporary countertrend bounce,” Timmer explained.
Timmer also highlighted two key liquidity indicators pointing toward institutional fatigue: firstly, futures interest has significantly declined—indicating leverage is exiting—and secondly, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed down markedly.
An Outlier in Momentum
One of Timmer’s most bearish observations concerns Bitcoin’s momentum curve. He described its recent price acceleration as an extraordinary outlier when compared with historical data and other asset classes.
“This suggests that some form of rebalancing may be necessary here,” he concluded thoughtfully.
Timmer’s insights serve as a sobering reminder for optimistic investors who believe that Bitcoin’s worst days are behind it already.