Over the last two years, Bitcoin has experienced positive returns in half of the months, which could indicate a strong likelihood that its price will rise above current levels by December, according to an economist.
Economist Timothy Peterson shared on X that “50% of the previous 24 months showed gains. This suggests an 88% probability that Bitcoin’s value will be higher ten months from now.” Data from CoinGlass reveals that in 2025, Bitcoin saw increases during January, April, May, June, July, and September; conversely, the remaining six months ended with losses.
Peterson uses this approach—counting positive monthly returns within any rolling 24-month window—to detect potential turning points in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Source: Timothy Peterson
On Polymarket—a platform for crypto forecasts—traders assign a 17% chance to December becoming Bitcoin’s ($BTC) top-performing month in 2026. November slightly leads with an 18% probability.
Historically speaking since 2013, November has been Bitcoin’s most profitable month on average with returns around 41.13%, as reported by CoinGlass.
This optimistic outlook comes even though Bitcoin is currently trading nearly 25% below its value at the start of this year. At publication time according to CoinMarketCap data, it stood at $68,173.
Bitcoin began trading near $80K back in February. Source: CoinMarketCap
The market experts remain divided regarding short-term prospects for this cryptocurrency. Michael van de Poppe—the founder of MN Trading Capital—noted last Friday his expectation for a green week ahead for $BTC, mentioning “closing this month with a significant bullish candle after five consecutive red months.”
Conversely, some analysts predict further declines; veteran trader Peter Brand recently told Magazine that he believes “the true bottom won’t arrive until October of next year (2026).”
This forecast emerges amid ongoing bearish sentiment across crypto markets. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an “Extreme Fear” level at just nine points on Sunday—indicating heightened investor caution.
Nonetheless, Santiment—a platform tracking crypto sentiment—noted last Friday that fewer public predictions about Bitcoin prices circulating on social media might actually signal healthier market conditions as overall mood shifts toward neutrality.