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Strategy has re-emerged as a noticeable buyer of Bitcoin (BTC) on its treasury balance sheet, but the financial environment it operates in today differs significantly from that of 2024 and early 2025.
At December’s close, Strategy raised capital but deployed very little into BTC. Between December 29 and 31, it sold approximately 1.26 million MSTR shares generating $195.9 million in net proceeds while purchasing only three BTC coins. However, activity picked up again at the start of January: from January 1 to January 4, another 735,000 shares were sold for $116.3 million net proceeds and about 1,283 BTC were acquired for roughly $116 million—averaging around $90,391 per Bitcoin—bringing total holdings to nearly 674 thousand BTC.
The more significant insight lies within how Strategy finances these purchases. During most of 2024 through early part of 2025, funding was secured inexpensively via convertible debt instruments bearing low cash coupons ranging between approximately half a percent to just over two percent—and often including zero-percent convertible notes later on. This approach works best when MSTR stock trades at a premium relative to its Bitcoin Net Asset Value (mNAV > 1), leveraging equity optionality effectively.
By mid-to-late-2025 though, this premium diminished and even reversed into a discount (mNAV < 1). This shift made equity-linked financing more difficult to execute and common stock issuances increasingly dilutive on a per-Bitcoin-share basis. Consequently, Strategy pivoted toward issuing preferred shares with higher cash costs—often below par value—which resulted in effective interest rates between roughly ten and twelve-and-a-half percent on funds raised. To maintain access to this capital channel amid rising costs,the dividend rate on STRC preferred shares was increased from nine percent in August 2025 up to eleven percent by January 2026.
Interestingly enough, Strategy continues financing its Bitcoin acquisitions by issuing common stock through an ATM facility—even while trading at an mNAV discount—accepting short-term dilution effects as necessary tradeoffs for ongoing accumulation and liquidity preservation.
When mNAV falls below one and marginal funding expenses rise into double digits, pursuing larger-scale purchases becomes both costlier and increasingly dilutive.
This dynamic renders Strategy less dependable as a consistent or price-setting buyer compared with periods when premiums prevailed.
While still influential as an indicator reflecting market sentiment, if the premium does not return soon, its buying patterns are expected more likely episodic rather than sustained forces driving market momentum.
A broader perspective reveals that during much of 2025’s marginal buying pressure essentially revolved around two main players: spot-based ETFs alongside Strategy itself.
The cumulative purchase volumes chart shows that throughout much of last year ,Strategy’s acquisition totals closely mirrored those generated by ETFs — suggesting comparable influence over market flows during certain intervals.
The outlook heading into 2026 appears considerably weaker due primarily to compressed mNAV levels combined with costlier preferred share financing plus dilutive ATM common issuance strategies.
As such , scaling up bids without exacerbating dilution per bitcoin share will prove challenging . While still serving as an important sentiment gauge , overall buying pressure is anticipated be subdued , intermittent rather than continuous . Consequently , ETF inflows along with wider crypto risk appetite dynamics will likely remain dominant determinants shaping price movements going forward .