VanEck, a prominent digital asset management firm, has released its forecast for the cryptocurrency market in 2026, highlighting that Bitcoin’s downside risks appear to be relatively constrained during this cycle. Rather than anticipating a significant surge or a steep decline, the firm expects the upcoming year to primarily feature market stabilization.
Matthew Sigel, who leads Digital Assets Research at VanEck, shared that early indicators for 2026 present a mixed yet overall optimistic outlook for digital assets. He pointed out that while Bitcoin saw an approximate 80% drop in its last cycle, its volatility has nearly decreased by half over time. This trend implies any correction this cycle might be limited to around 40%, with about 35% of such a downturn already factored into current prices.
The analysis further confirms that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cyclical pattern remains intact following its peak in October 2025. Within this framework, VanEck anticipates that the year ahead will likely experience sideways price movements and balance rather than dramatic increases or falls.
Regarding global liquidity conditions, the outlook is somewhat complex. Although anticipated interest rate reductions could provide some support to markets, competing factors like increased investments in AI technologies within the US and fragile credit environments may cause credit spreads to widen and liquidity conditions to tighten moderately. Nevertheless, leverage levels across crypto markets have adjusted post recent disruptions; meanwhile on-chain activity—though still subdued—is beginning to show early signs of improvement.
This content does not constitute financial advice.