Bitcoin is currently trading near $91,300 as the market enters January 5th, confined within a tightening pattern. Buyers are actively supporting an ascending short-term trendline, while sellers persistently limit gains below a descending resistance line that has influenced price movements since November. This interplay results in consolidation rather than strong momentum, with the market’s direction likely to be determined early this week when U.S. markets reopen.
Converging Trendlines Intensify Compression
BTC Price Movements (Source: TradingView)
The daily chart reveals Bitcoin coiling within a narrowing wedge formation. The lower boundary has been rising steadily since mid-December lows around $80,500, whereas the upper boundary slopes downward from the breakdown zone observed in November. Currently, price action is pressing into the apex of this structure.
Bitcoin remains below key moving averages such as the 100-day EMA near $96,750 and the 200-day EMA close to $100,300—indicating that longer-term trends remain cautious. Meanwhile, shorter-term EMAs—the 20-day at approximately $88,900 and 50-day near $91,500—serve more as equilibrium points than definitive trend indicators.
The daily Supertrend indicator stays bearish around $95,100 reinforcing seller dominance over broader momentum; until this level is surpassed convincingly on closing basis upward moves are likely corrective retracements rather than sustained rallies.
Short-Term Charts Indicate Active Yet Limited Buying Pressure
BTC Price Movements (Source: TradingView)
A closer look at shorter timeframes paints a somewhat optimistic picture. On the 30-minute chart throughout the weekend Bitcoin respected an upward sloping trendline consistently. Each pullback towards roughly between $89,500 and $90,000 attracted buying interest leading to higher lows and maintaining elevated prices.
Momentum indicators support this stabilization narrative: RSI remains above 60 signaling strength without signs of overextension; MACD stays positive but shows signs of flattening out which suggests slowing upside momentum instead of acceleration.
The current consolidation just under resistance at about $91,500 has repeatedly halted advances during recent sessions; breaking cleanly above could open targets between roughly $92,000 and $92,500 where selling pressure historically intensified.
Spot Market Flows Show Signs Of Stabilization After Heavy Selling
BTC Netflows (Source: Coinglass)
Data from spot exchanges indicate that selling pressure has diminished compared to late November through early December periods. Although netflows remain negative when viewed over longer intervals overall recent sessions have recorded modest inflows—for example approximately +$25.6 million recently—implying aggressive distribution phases have paused temporarily.
This contrasts sharply with previous episodes during November’s breakdown when daily outflows often exceeded hundreds of millions dollars coinciding with sharp declines in price levels; absence of similar flow pressures lately helps explain why Bitcoin managed to hold steady despite technical vulnerabilities present on charts now.
No Significant Impact From Recent Geopolitical Events
This past weekend’s geopolitical developments triggered surprisingly muted reactions from Bitcoin markets despite heightened online debates regarding U.S airstrikes targeting Caracas alongside Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s capture news coverage worldwide risk assets including cryptocurrencies showed limited immediate response or volatility spikes linked directly thereto .
Historically sudden geopolitical shocks tend to cause swift selloffs across risky asset classes including crypto but on this occasion prices remained supported above critical short term supports suggesting forced liquidation was minimal if any occurred .
Some analysts interpret such resilience positively indicating underlying strength while others warn calm conditions may be temporary given institutional participants largely inactive over weekends leaving potential for reactive flows once traditional financial centers resume operations Monday onward .
The Road Ahead: Will Bitcoin Break Out?
Currently bitcoin experiences compression rather than directional trending – soon however one side will prevail breaking current balance:
- Bullish scenario: a decisive close beyond Supertrend level near $95,100, flipping its signal bullish coupled with breaching descending resistance would pave way toward retesting key moving average zones like $96,75 (100 day EMA).
- Bearish scenario: if daily closes fall beneath rising support around $89,50 , it could trigger deeper declines possibly reaching down toward levels near $86,5&';
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