A prevailing story about Bitcoin whales secretly accumulating BTC and preparing for a price surge has been challenged by recent on-chain analytics, which suggest that there is actually a distribution occurring among the largest holders—possibly tempering short-term bullish expectations.
While recent reports have claimed that significant BTC wallets are actively purchasing during market dips, a closer examination of blockchain data reveals a more complex situation.
Julius Moreno, the head of research at the platform, warned that what seems to be whale accumulation is primarily driven by exchange activities that distort perceptions of buying. Exchanges often reorganize their funds into different wallets, leading to an increase in the number of wallets holding large amounts.
Moreno expressed on X: “No, whales are not acquiring vast quantities of Bitcoin. Much of the whale data circulating has been ‘influenced’ by exchanges consolidating their holdings into fewer addresses with larger balances. This explains why it appears as though whales have recently accumulated many coins.”
Blockchain analytics companies indicate that long-term Bitcoin holders—those who have maintained their BTC for extended periods—have reverted to net distribution after an extended phase of accumulation.
Moreno asserts Bitcoin is still in asset distribution rather than accumulation
Moreno highlighted adjusted figures indicating that major holders remain in distribution mode instead of accumulating assets. The data also shows a consistent decline in whale holdings and diminishing balances among addresses containing 100–1,000 BTC, implying ongoing ETF outflows.
Larger holders typically exert considerable influence over Bitcoin’s price; however, market dynamics are evolving with the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs becoming significant players. Despite concerns regarding whale accumulation, sentiment among long-term BTC holders appears to be improving based on other on-chain indicators.
Matthew Sigel from VanEck noted that long-term Bitcoin investors have resumed buying after experiencing one of their most substantial selling periods in years. This trend indicates potential easing in recent selling pressure on BTC. Although recovery remains cautious for Bitcoin at this time—and hasn’t pushed prices back down below $80K as seen last November—it currently trades just above $90K.
Bollinger Bands—a crucial measure for volatility—indicate an impending major price movement may occur soon.TradingView’s data reveals that Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands—the volatility bands set two standard deviations above and below its 20-day moving average—have narrowed to under $3,500; this represents the tightest range since July.
A similar Bollinger Band squeeze occurred late July when it limited consolidation between $115K and $120K before initiating a three-month price expansion ranging from $100K to $126K. A comparable pattern was observed late February when consolidation happened between $94K and $98K prior to another squeeze leading prices downwards towards $80k.
Keen predicts Bitcoin will exceed $270k by February 2026
The social media forecaster Kim recently suggested that BTC could soar past $270k within just one month next year. Reports indicate he attributed his optimistic forecast to both growth prospects and vulnerabilities within fiat currencies while emphasizing bitcoin’s historical volatility alongside macroeconomic influences affecting its trends.
The social media figure has made several predictions regarding bitcoin previously which did not materialize as expected; notably predicting last November it would double beyond$220k within 45 days while pledging any profits toward church construction—a surge never came about .
In addition , Kim asserted btc might replace us dollar by2026 labeling current lows manipulation-driven discounts .