Bitcoin approaches the end of the year in a somewhat contradictory state. Institutional interest has reached unprecedented levels, yet price movements remain cautious, hindered by limited liquidity, distribution from long-term holders, and inconsistent global trading flows.
As investors set their sights on 2026, the focus shifts from questioning Bitcoin’s fundamental monetary value to anticipating when its market price will align with that intrinsic worth.
Limited Liquidity Fuels Short-Term Price Swings
The year is concluding with Bitcoin exhibiting typical holiday season behavior rather than reacting to fresh fundamental developments.
“Holiday-related low liquidity continues to suppress trading volume, causing sporadic spikes in spot volatility that are expected,” analysts at QCP observed.
This heightened volatility stems primarily from discretionary purchases instead of forced liquidation or position adjustments. According to QCP experts, demand is largely originating within spot and perpetual markets operating under thin conditions.
A notable portion of buying pressure came from Strategy’s recent activity; as disclosed in a Monday filing, they acquired 1,229 Bitcoins last week for $108.8 million at an average cost of $88,568 per coin.
Options Market Indicates Fragile Optimism
After a significant options expiry event on Friday, funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual contracts on Deribit surged sharply—from near zero up past 30%—signaling a potentially bullish shift among dealers’ positions.
QCP highlighted that traders who were previously positioned long gamma before expiry—helping keep prices stable—have now flipped into effectively short gamma on the upside. This means as prices climb higher these participants must buy either spot Bitcoin or short-dated call options to hedge their exposure which further amplifies upward momentum.
The latest note from QCP Capital points out aggressive buying activity in perpetual futures alongside increased demand for call options. They suggest maintaining levels above $94K could trigger stronger gamma-driven squeezes pushing prices even higher.
On the downside risk front however near-term hedging has relaxed: put skew decreased after many traders opted not to roll over large December $85K put positions ahead of expiry.
Additionally about half of open interest was eliminated following Friday’s record-breaking expiry event leaving substantial capital temporarily sidelined; as new positioning rebuilds volatility should return though direction remains unclear according to QCP Capital analysis.
Divergent Regional Trends: Asia Accumulates While US Sells
This uncertainty manifests unevenly across different regions. Laser Digital described last week’s market action as reflecting typical holiday inactivity patterns but noted an intriguing divergence based on time zones:
- During US trading hours: Bitcoin and Ethereum both dropped more than 3%
- During Asian sessions: Both cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly
The investor note attributes this pattern mainly to year-end tax-loss harvesting activities within the United States where crypto assets have lagged behind most other global asset classes this year resulting in steady selling pressure domestically offset by accumulation overseas.
Despite subdued overall market activity Messari analysts emphasize how deeply crypto is becoming embedded at institutional levels: stablecoin supplies hit all-time highs while regulators openly discuss developing robust on-chain infrastructure supporting these markets.
“Yet sentiment feels almost worse than ever,” stated Messari’s end-of-year analyst report highlighting growing gaps between perception and underlying fundamentals.
The Reasons Behind Bitcoin’s Underperformance In 2025
Bitcoin’s relative weakness compared with gold and equities throughout late 2025 has cast doubt over its reputation as “digital gold”. Gold has surged more than 60% so far this year while stock markets reached record peaks, yet Bitcoin remains slightly below breakeven.
Messari attributes this softness not to structural flaws but rather supply-side dynamics.
Large holders with longstanding balances have been net sellers during much of 2025 leveraging improved institutional liquidity channels. “Galaxy Digital facilitated sales amounting to approximately 80,000 BTC ,” a single investor dating back Satoshi-era,” cited early-year transactions.
On-chain data reveals addresses holding between one thousand and one hundred thousand BTC distributed hundreds thousands coins through this period.
Meanwhile two major sources driving demand slowed considerably:
Digital Asset Treasury inflows weakened starting October,
and spot-based Bitcoin ETFs which had been consistent buyers shifted into net selling mode.
The market thus faced increasing supply just when inflows stalled creating downward pressure overall.& / span >
Messari stresses & nbsp ;this situation isn’t permanent:
“If uncertain zoom out,”—bringing perspective through longer time frames shows bitcoin surviving deeper drawdowns before bouncing back strongly across cycles . "
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A New Framework For Understanding The Price Of Bitcoin In 2026</h2>
Looking Ahead To The Year Ahead:
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