Mike McGlone, a lead commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, is sounding an alarm about a seldom-discussed yet insightful indicator: the amount of gold that one Bitcoin can purchase. This metric often provides early signals ahead of Bitcoin’s dollar price movements.
In his recent analysis and accompanying charts, McGlone highlights that on December 22nd, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio hovered around 20x. He warns that the risk outlook appears unfavorable. Essentially, he suggests it’s more probable for Bitcoin’s value relative to gold to decline to 10x rather than surge to 30x by 2026.
If this scenario unfolds, Bitcoin’s purchasing power against gold would be halved—even if such a shift might not be as obvious when viewed through USD price charts.
McGlone explains that the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio serves as an early warning indicator: during periods when recession risks intensify, this ratio tends to weaken. Currently, it is tracked alongside the S&P 500 index and market volatility for good reason. The critical insight here is that stock prices, volatility levels, and the Bitcoin/gold cross remain closely linked—more than many realize—with their correlation near 0.5376. This implies they still behave as part of a unified “risk-on/risk-off” dynamic.
$50K Target for Bitcoin in 2026
Looking further ahead into 2026 projections, McGlone paints a picture where core Consumer Price Index (CPI) slows toward roughly 1%, oil prices settle near $40 per barrel, gasoline costs hover around $2 per gallon—and notably—Bitcoin trades close to $50,000.
He clarifies he isn’t pinpointing exact dates or precise targets but indicates these cycle-level valuations typically emerge if U.S. equities drop about ten percent and fail to rebound swiftly back upward—signaling markets undergoing significant reset phases.