Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy, has acknowledged that his earlier forecast for Bitcoin in 2025 was mistaken. He had anticipated the cryptocurrency would reach $150,000 by the end of the year, driven by an improving regulatory landscape. However, current market sentiment remains strongly negative.
“If you had asked me before, I would have confidently predicted 2025 to be a fantastic year for Bitcoin,” Novogratz explained. “I expected it to close at around $150k. Right now, we're hovering near $88k as we speak. Clearly, I misjudged the situation.”
“Cortisol Bellies”
Novogratz characterizes today's cryptocurrency market as dominated by stress hormones rather than bullish enthusiasm. Traders are experiencing anxiety and caution.
“There's an insightful book called The Hour Between Dog and Wolf, which explores market psychology,” he said. “Bull markets are fueled by testosterone — confidence and aggression — while bear markets trigger cortisol production — stress and fear. In bearish times like these past few months in crypto trading, participants even develop what I call 'cortisol bellies', a metaphor for how stress physically manifests.”
A significant blow to momentum was dealt during the so-called Black Friday flash crash on October 9th. Novogratz pointed out that this event inflicted both psychological trauma and financial losses on retail investors.
The veteran investor expects continued volatility with sideways price movement ahead.
For Bitcoin to reclaim a bullish narrative, it must surpass the crucial threshold of $100,000—a challenging feat given that call option sellers are limiting upward gains.
Advances in Infrastructure
Despite stagnant prices in recent times, there is considerable optimism surrounding crypto infrastructure development. Novogratz highlighted progress particularly within neo-banking platforms and tokenization efforts.
“Building infrastructure never experiences a bear market,” he emphasized confidently.