According to a market expert, Bitcoin might experience a more significant decline in 2026, potentially dropping back toward the $69,000 mark. This downturn could signal broader challenges for risk-related assets beyond just cryptocurrency.
In an interview with David Lin on December 19, Gareth Soloway, the Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, emphasized that Bitcoin’s recent slump should be interpreted within the context of historical market cycles rather than as isolated crypto volatility.
Soloway shared his perspective: “I don’t expect Bitcoin to undergo its usual 75% drop like previous cycles. Instead, anticipate a correction in the range of 40% to 50%, followed by a consolidation phase where institutional investors begin accumulating.”
He further suggested that this corrective period may already be underway. When asked if the drawdown had started, Soloway responded affirmatively: “Looking at the chart from peak to trough shows we’ve already seen about a 36% decrease.”
The significance of past cycle highs
Soloway pointed out that Bitcoin’s technical patterns indicate it might revisit prior cycle highs which now serve as crucial support levels.
“Examining Bitcoin’s chart suggests we’re likely headed back toward last cycle’s peak around $69,000,” he explained. “This area between $69,000 and $74,000 represents my key zone. A pullback into this range would align with roughly a 40-45% correction hitting support.”
Nonetheless, he warned that if broader financial markets deteriorate sharply, outcomes could worsen.
“Should there be an extreme stock market crash—a major collapse—Bitcoin would probably fall even further because panic selling would spread across all asset classes,” Soloway cautioned.
The relationship between stocks and Bitcoin in 2026
The strategist linked his cautious stance on equities directly with his outlook for Bitcoin. He noted that historically during periods of intense market stress cryptocurrencies and stocks tend to move together.
If equities face their typical pullback of approximately 10-15% next year as expected by many analysts,
Soloway believes Bitcoin might start stabilizing despite ongoing stock struggles.
“I still believe investors will turn towards Bitcoin away from other risky assets,” he remarked.
“While it remains largely classified as risky itself,
institutional money increasingly views it akin to digital gold,
which should help mitigate downside risks.”
An important trend highlighted was growing divergence between traditional markets and crypto performance.
Although some stock indices have gained double digits year-to-date depending on sessions,
Bitcoin has remained down over similar periods.
When questioned whether current prices make Bitcoin appealing compared with equities,
Soloway answered decisively:
“If I had funds available right now,
I’d definitely be accumulating bitcoin gradually during this downward phase.”
A call for defensive strategies ahead
The strategist also expressed concern over excessive leverage and speculative hype surrounding sectors like artificial intelligence
, which have increased vulnerability within equity markets.
“So much capital combined with high leverage is flowing into stocks presently,” he said.“Even though AI promises economic transformation, early signs show margin pressures beneath surface gains.”
“Investors need to focus on defensive sectors throughout 2026, and consider alternative plays such as bitcoin especially if prices approach around seventy thousand dollars.”
Watch Gareth Soloway’s full discussion below: