Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has reached a record-breaking $1.125 trillion, indicating that despite a nearly 40% drop in price over the past ten weeks, BTC is still experiencing bullish momentum.
This on-chain indicator calculates the value of each bitcoin based on the price at which it last moved, reflecting genuine capital inflows rather than speculative fluctuations seen in total market capitalization.
According to Glassnode data, realized cap steadily increased even during the 36% correction from Bitcoin’s all-time high in October. Although it has recently plateaued around $1.125 trillion, a similar pause occurred during April 2025’s tariff turmoil when Bitcoin dipped near $76,000 before rallying to new peaks.
In contrast, during the 2022 bear market, realized cap dropped from approximately $470 billion to $385 billion as investors sold coins at lower cost bases amid capitulation—a trend not currently observed.
The Four-Year Cycle Theory Faces Doubt
Andre Dragosch, Bitwise’s European head of research, shared with CoinDesk that Bitcoin might break away from its traditional four-year cycle pattern and deliver unexpected gains in 2026. He highlighted strong global economic growth combined with anticipated interest rate cuts that could steepen yield curves and increase liquidity—factors likely to weaken the U.S. dollar and historically benefit Bitcoin.
“From my perspective,” Dragosch explained, “Bitcoin is significantly undervaluing the current macroeconomic environment—similar to levels seen during both the Covid recession and FTX collapse—even though there are no signs pointing toward a U.S. recession and growth appears to be accelerating again.”