Research and brokerage firm K33 has indicated that the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders might be nearing its limit after years of gradual distribution.
K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde highlighted in a recent report that the amount of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) older than two years has been steadily declining since 2024. During this timeframe, roughly 1.6 million BTC—valued at about $138 billion based on current market prices—has re-entered circulation, signaling ongoing on-chain sales by early adopters.
Lunde emphasized that this significant reduction cannot be attributed solely to technical factors. While transitions such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s shift from a closed-end fund to a spot ETF, wallet consolidations, and security-related address updates may explain some initial movements, these do not fully justify the large volume of supply returning to active circulation. The data suggests an extensive distribution phase is underway.
According to K33’s analysis, both 2024 and 2025 rank as the second and third highest years historically for reactivation of long-term Bitcoin holdings—with only 2017 surpassing them in volume. However, Lunde pointed out key differences between now and then: whereas activity in 2017 was largely driven by altcoin trades, ICOs, and protocol incentives; today’s surge stems mainly from direct selling enabled by deep liquidity through US spot Bitcoin ETFs alongside growing institutional treasury demand.
The report also cited notable large transactions reinforcing this trend: an OTC sale involving 80,000 BTC via Galaxy in July; a whale swapping 24,000 BTC for ETH in August; plus further sales totaling around 11,000 BTC during October-November. K33 noted similar patterns among other major investors could partly explain Bitcoin’s relatively subdued performance throughout 2025.
This year alone saw approximately $300 billion worth of Bitcoins aged one year or more being reactivated according to K33 data. Lunde explained that enhanced institutional liquidity allowed long-term holders to realize profits at six-figure price levels—thereby reducing concentration among top owners while establishing new benchmark prices across much of the circulating supply.
Looking ahead with more caution: since about one-fifth of total Bitcoin supply has been mobilized over the past two years already; Lunde expects on-chain selling pressure will soon reach saturation point. Consequently it is anticipated that the downward trend observed over two years could reverse before end-2026—potentially pushing circulating supply beyond today’s approximate level near 12.16 million BTC—as reduced early investor sell-offs give way to net buying demand gaining momentum.
The report also discussed portfolio balancing effects tied to quarter-end timing: historically bitcoin tends to move counter-directionally relative to prior quarter trends when new quarters begin—and lagging behind other asset classes late Q4 may prompt portfolio managers aiming for stable allocations toward bitcoin purchases during late December into January—a pattern similarly seen between September and October recently.
However,Lunde warned historical cycles show most supply reactivations cluster near market peaks rather than troughs—but he stressed current dynamics differ due increased mainstream adoption via ETFs,institutional advisory platforms,and clearer regulatory clarity.This evolution might foster steadier demand once distribution pressures subside further.
*This content does not constitute investment advice.*