In a recent analysis, Mike McGlone, the senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, drew a striking analogy between the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index projected for 2025 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 1929. He provocatively labeled this scenario as “Peak Bitcoin?” suggesting that what we are witnessing is not merely a pause but the initial phase of a significant market purge—one reminiscent of the devastating crash that triggered the Great Depression nearly a century ago.
This comparison is grounded in data rather than speculation. Bloomberg’s normalization metrics reveal that cryptocurrency markets are mirroring the trajectory once followed by U.S. equities: an intense rally fueled by growing speculation, eventually giving way to a gradual decline.
McGlone emphasizes that debates about whether Bitcoin represents a bubble typically intensify near market peaks rather than troughs. Given Bitcoin’s close correlation with broader risk assets, he believes it fits perfectly within this historical pattern.
Initial Rally Followed by Market Correction
According to McGlone, Bitcoin’s surge after 2024 can be likened to holding down an inflated beach ball underwater until political pressures eased following reelection events in 2024. This release caused prices to accelerate rapidly as speculative enthusiasm surged and excesses accumulated. Presently, he suggests we have entered what he calls the “cleansing phase.” Despite Bitcoin declining only around 5% through December 14th of 2025—a sign some interpret as resilience—McGlone warns this may conceal greater downside risks instead of signaling stability.
The cautionary outlook deepens when gold is factored into the equation. The ratio between Bitcoin and gold hovered near 10 at the end of 2022 before skyrocketing during crypto’s bull run; however, it has since dropped roughly 40% in 2025 to approximately 21. McGlone anticipates this ratio could revert back toward levels near ten by mid-2026—a shift historically associated with pressure on all risk-oriented investments.
The most unsettling forecast from McGlone predicts that while Bitcoin briefly surpassed $100,000—which might have set conditions for an extended retreat—the cryptocurrency could potentially fall as low as $10,000 sometime in or before late-2026 amid broader declines affecting speculative assets characterized by high supply yet lacking fundamental backing.