This past weekend, Bitcoin’s value faced significant downward pressure, raising concerns about a potential drop to $75,000 ahead of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate announcement.
Summary
Bitcoin appears to be on the brink of a substantial bearish breakout.
The likelihood of an interest rate increase by the Bank of Japan has surged to 98% this week.
Technical indicators suggest that further declines in Bitcoin’s price are imminent.
The original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently hovering around the psychological threshold of $90,000. This figure represents approximately a 29% decrease from its peak earlier this year, indicating that it remains entrenched in a prolonged bear market.
This week could see a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price as investors brace for the anticipated rate hike from the Bank of Japan on December 19. Data from Polymarket indicates there is a staggering 98% chance that rates will rise by 5 basis points as part of efforts to tackle persistent inflationary pressures.
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The impending rate increase by BoJ carries several implications. Firstly, it will underscore its autonomy despite Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s preference for lower rates.
Secondly, this decision follows closely after the Federal Reserve reduced rates by 25 basis points last week, adjusting their benchmark policy range between 3.50% and 3.75%. The disparity between Fed and BoJ policies frequently triggers unwinding carry trades established over many years.
Lastly, historical trends indicate that when BoJ raises rates, Bitcoin typically experiences double-digit declines. The most drastic drop occurred last year during their first rate hike in decades.
🚨 BREAKING: JAPAN WILL CRASH $BTC
The Bank of Japan is poised to raise rates +25 bps on Dec 19. Japan = largest holder of US government debt 🇯🇵
📉 Observe the $BTC chart:
Every BoJ rate hike → Bitcoin plummets over 20%+👇
• March ’24 → -23%
• July ’24 → -26%
• January ’25 →… pic.twitter.com/grN3QRNUg4— AndrewBTC (@cryptoctlt) December 13, ’25
Additionally, while guidance from the Federal Reserve suggests only one possible cut in interest rates for next year (2026), expectations among analysts were much higher than this forecasted reduction. Although former President Trump may appoint someone compliant as Fed Chairperson; other officials might still serve as balancing influences within monetary policy discussions—three members dissented during recent meetings—a trend likely to persist into next year.
An Analysis Of Bitcoin Price Trends
BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news
A technical analysis reveals that there may be more downside risk for Bitcoin prices over upcoming weeks; notably forming what traders call “death cross” patterns on daily charts indicates troubling signals ahead!
This pattern now appears alongside another bearish flag formation characterized by vertical lines combined with ascending channels—similar signs often lead toward additional losses downwards!
.The current BTC valuation remains below both Ichimoku cloud metrics & Supertrend indicators suggesting bears dominate trading conditions! Consequently—the most probable scenario involves continued depreciation targeting November lows around USD80k initially before plunging further beneath those levels possibly reaching support near USD74k—which marked April’s lowest point earlier this calendar year!
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