In its most recent analysis of Bitcoin’s market dynamics, the crypto analytics firm Glassnode highlighted that price fluctuations are becoming increasingly unstable.
The report explains that Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from growing unrealized losses, an uptick in realized losses, and significant profit-taking by long-term holders. Despite this, demand has not vanished entirely, which helps keep the price above the True Market Average level. This suggests that patient buyers are actively absorbing the market volatility.
Glassnode identifies two crucial thresholds that must be reclaimed for the market to regain momentum: a quarterly cost-based rate of $95,000 at 0.75 and a short-term investor cost floor near $102,700.
If these levels remain out of reach, Bitcoin is likely to hover around the Real Market Average zone at approximately $81,300—a potential area for bottom formation. The ongoing sideways trading is increasingly testing investor sentiment as prolonged stagnation widens unrealized losses and intensifies selling pressure. Notably, the Relative Unrealized Loss (30-day SMA) indicator has climbed to 4.4%, marking stress levels unseen in nearly two years.
Additional off-chain metrics reinforce this weak outlook: ETF flows continue trending downward while spot market liquidity stays thin. Speculative interest in futures markets remains muted as well—making Bitcoin more vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts. Meanwhile, options traders are pricing in near-term volatility with balanced option strategies gaining traction alongside rising demand for downside protection. This scenario reflects cautious short-term sentiment but a more stable long-term perspective.
With December’s FOMC meeting—the year’s final major macro event—on the horizon, implied volatility is expected to settle later this month. Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory will depend heavily on improved liquidity and easing selling pressures; without these factors aligning, it may remain confined within its fragile current range.
Summarizing their view on overall conditions: Glassnode characterizes the market as “fragile yet holding.” While steady demand from patient investors supports prices somewhat, persistent heavy selling prevents any meaningful upward breakout attempts. For sustained recovery over time to occur requires renewed confidence among investors alongside better liquidity and reclaiming key cost floors; otherwise BTC risks staying trapped within this psychologically taxing range for an extended duration.
This content does not constitute financial advice.