The BRICS alliance has expanded to include 11 nations, with several of its major members reducing their holdings in US Treasury securities over the past year.
Between September 2024 and September 2025, China decreased its Treasury investments by $71.5 billion, moving from $772 billion down to $700.5 billion. Similarly, India trimmed its holdings by $44.5 billion, Brazil cut back by $61.9 billion, and Saudi Arabia reduced theirs by $9.6 billion according to the US Treasury’s TIC Major Foreign Holders report.
These adjustments are tangible and primarily concentrated among the bloc’s largest official-sector investors.
Despite these reductions from BRICS members, total foreign ownership of US Treasuries actually increased during this period—from approximately $8.77 trillion to nearly $9.25 trillion.
The broader market absorbed these official-sector sales without disruption because private foreign inflows in August and September offset official outflows, as detailed in the Treasury’s November 18 TIC report.
This dynamic suggests that rather than a wholesale sell-off of US debt globally, what we’re witnessing is a strategic diversification by some emerging-market central banks while other buyers—often private entities—step up their purchases.
The key question for cryptocurrency markets is whether this subtle portfolio rebalancing combined with shifts in currency values and real yields strengthens Bitcoin’s appeal as a safeguard against monetary instability.
The de-dollarization narrative versus currency fluctuations
Data from the IMF’s second-quarter COFER shows that the dollar’s share of allocated global reserves dropped to 56.32%, continuing a downward trend seen earlier in the year.
However, an accompanying IMF blog highlights that about 92% of this decline was due to exchange-rate movements linked largely to a significant drop in the DXY index during H1 rather than an abrupt change in central bank reserve preferences.
This distinction is crucial when evaluating how much reserve managers are genuinely shifting away from dollars versus how much changes reflect valuation effects on asset baskets denominated partly in USD.
A clearer indicator comes from gold demand: central banks maintained record-high gold purchases throughout 2024—accounting for over one-fifth of global demand—as noted by ECB analysis for 2025 driven largely by diversification goals and geopolitical risk hedging strategies.
The World Gold Council’s latest survey indicates many reserve managers anticipate reducing dollar allocations over five years while increasing shares held in gold and alternative currencies not traditionally part of reserves portfolios.
Gold remains attractive as it carries no counterparty risk making it an obvious initial choice for official diversification efforts beyond fiat currencies like USD or EUR.
Bitcoin’s potential hinges on whether similar macro concerns—including fiscal imbalances, geopolitical tensions,and weakening dollar dynamics—inspire private investors toward adopting harder non-sovereign assets despite unstable empirical links between Treasury selling patterns and BTC flows so far observed.
The interplay between real yields & hedge rationale
An environment with rising real yields generally tightens financial conditions putting pressure on speculative or long-duration assets; conversely falling real yields tend to support such assets including Bitcoin which offers no yield itself but can act as protection against inflationary erosion or currency debasement risks.
The benchmark measure often referenced here is the ten-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) real yield which serves macro traders assessing Bitcoin risk appetite: lower real rates reduce opportunity costs associated with holding zero-yield crypto relative to income-generating alternatives.
When these inflation-adjusted returns compress , zero-yield stores-of-value like BTC become more appealing , reinforcing narratives positioning them as hedges . On contrary , higher inflation – adjusted rates make traditional yield-bearing instruments comparatively more attractive weakening BTC ‘ s hedge argument .
Recent periods featuring elevated real yields have coincided with volatility across crypto markets though causality isn ‘ t straightforward .
The effectiveness of Bitcoin ’ s hedge status depends heavily on market interpretations : if rising rates signal inflationary stress — typically positive for BTC — versus tightening liquidity conditions which usually weigh negatively . Thus prevailing sentiment shapes impact .
This reasoning also applies regarding BRICS ’ trimming U.S.Treasury positions : if motivated primarily by worries about U.S.fiscal health or dollar depreciation , they bolster narratives supporting Bitcoin ’ s role protecting against fiat instability ; if driven mainly by routine portfolio adjustments seeking better returns elsewhere then implications weaken considerably .
Treasury flow data alone cannot definitively clarify motives behind sales but contextual factors such as record central-bank gold buying,fiscal deficits,and gradual declinesin dollar share suggest some portionofofficialdiversificationislong-termhedge-drivenratherthanmere tactical allocation moves.
Navigating state-level adoption challenges
Narratives around corporateandprivate sector embraceofBitcoinhaveadvanced faster than governmental acceptance.April2025 saw Swiss National Bank leadership rejectBTCasareserveasset citing concernsabout volatilityandliquidity constraints.
Centrabanks prioritize stabilitydeepmarketsandcrisis-time deployabilitywithoutprice disruption.BTCcurrentlyfails tomeetthesecriteriaformostofficialmanagers evenwhile individualinvestorsviewitasmacrohedge.Thisgapbetweenprivate enthusiasmandofficial cautiondefinescurrentBTCreserve discourse phase.
TyingbacktoBRICSTreasurysales,the reductionsarerealbut incremental coexistingwithrisingoverallforeignholdings.De-dollarization trends remain gradualdrivenmorebyexchange rate impactsandgolddemandthancoordinatedUSdebtexit.Bitcoin’ sinvolvementhereisstillspeculative,ratherthanastructuralshift.
Largermacroforceslikeportfoliodiversification,fiscaluncertainty geopolitics,currencyvolatilityalsosupporttheBTChedgenarrative,yetthisconnectionremainsnarrativeresonanceoverdirectcapitalflowproof.
Ifprivatemarketsembraceideaofanon-sovereignhard-cappedassetwithinportfolios amidfiatinstabilityconcerns,thiscouldsolidifydurabledemand.Dataindicateadrift,butmarketwillultimatelydecidewhetherBitcoincapturesitsmomentum.< /P>