Bitcoin’s value nearly hit levels not seen since June, as liquidations surpassed $19 billion last week. This situation has prompted many traders to revisit the traditional “four-year cycle” strategy for guidance on their next steps.
While some market analysts suggest that the four-year Bitcoin cycle is nearing its conclusion, a segment of traders remains steadfast in following this approach. These individuals are offloading their assets, convinced that the downturn in the crypto market isn’t over yet.
The Bitcoin cycle, which allegedly spans around four years, initiates with a halving event. This triggers a bull market surge followed by a significant crash and then an extended period of price stability. The cycle resets with each new halving when miners’ block rewards are reduced by half to limit new coin circulation.
Bitcoin reached its peak at $67,000 in November 2021 before experiencing a decline. Consequently, numerous traders now anticipate that we are nearing the end of this four-year phase.
“The concept of a four-year cycle isn’t exclusive to crypto,” remarked one observer on X. “Historically speaking from 1920 until 2002 with S&P 500 data—almost all lows align with this pattern except for two instances—so it’s likely still applicable to Bitcoin.”
Does Bitcoin Halving Still Influence Markets?
The halving mechanism embedded within Bitcoin’s architecture slashes miner rewards by half approximately every four years. Since these rewards represent the sole source for generating new Bitcoins into circulation—the supply rate diminishes significantly post-halvings.
This scarcity fuels demand surges initiating euphoric bull markets where prices often reach unprecedented highs; consequently prompting miners towards holding rather than selling newly mined coins immediately due largely because they anticipate greater returns later down-the-line
This supply constraint leads analysts describing it as creating what is known colloquially as “supply shock” which further elevates demand levels higher still....
Upon cooling-off from ensuing bullish runs—the marketplace enters lengthy adjustment phases lasting roughly between one-and-a-half-to-two-years until renewed investor interest emerges again during subsequent halvings kickstarting another ‘bull season’ once more
“Following crashes concluding such runs there exists prolonged periods whereby bitcoin prices remain relatively stable,” explained one Reddit user adding: “These intervals typically span around two-years though admittedly dull they also present opportunities buy up maximum amounts prior upcoming cycles.”
Wintermute desk strategist Jasper De Maere contends however buying pre-halvings only sell shortly thereafter when price fails soar outdated strategy altogether.
The Crypto Bull Run No One Is Ready For w/ @CryptoHayes– Milk Road (@MilkRoadDaily) October 15th2025 .
$250K $BTC by year-end? Arthur still believes it.
Why? The Fed just admitted QT is ending.
Liquidity is coming back fast.
QE is around corner… Tune know more⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱… pic.twitter.com/GJ2gafqDjT
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As reported Cryptopolitan Hayes posits central bank actions particularly those US Federal Reserve exert greater influence over bitcoin pricing trajectories compared mere halvings themselves .
“The old script about volatility proneness crashing every-four-years fading away” wrote suggesting looser monetary policies sustain long-term upward pressure values instead.”.
According former BitMEX CEO Fed’s tolerance inflation above target could support increased liquidity opening doors wider range investors seeking hedges against inflationary pressures like bitcoins he claims rendering traditional obsolete altogether!