During the Community Bank Conference on October 9, Fed Chair Jerome Powell chose not to address monetary policy, indirectly supporting Bitcoin’s journey toward a $150,000 valuation.
Matt Mena from 21Shares suggested that Powell’s omission was intentional and strategic.
Mena described this focus as a “green light for risk assets,” since the absence of US data reduces macroeconomic pressures on Bitcoin and hints at more dovish policy expectations.
The federal shutdown has paused significant data releases like employment figures and CPI reports, leaving traders and the Fed with limited information to justify further rate hikes.
Bitcoin saw an influx of over $2.5 billion between October 6 and October 8. Notably, Monday alone witnessed a $1.2 billion inflow—one of the largest ever—propelling prices to $126,000.
However, by October 8, inflows decreased to $440.7 million as rising Japanese government bond yields strengthened the dollar, prompting some tactical de-risking in markets.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets now see a 95% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting. For December, these odds are at 81.5% according to CME data.
On Polymarket platforms, there’s currently a 71% probability for such a rate cut in December. Meanwhile, predictions about an ongoing US government shutdown until at least mid-October have hit an unprecedented high of 88%.
Together these probabilities suggest that prolonged delays due to the shutdown might lead the Fed towards considering further easing measures.
Mena remarked: “The market is clearly digesting gains before its next leg higher… Once BTC breaks above $130k… it’s almost like being drawn by magnet.”
Mena also noted how consolidation near record highs coincides with Nasdaq & gold setting new records frequently—strengthening Bitcoin’s dual foundations in currency protection (gold) & innovation/growth (Nasdaq).
“Powell may have stayed silent but liquidity expectations are clear,” he concluded “and others seem eager too.”