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Bitcoin has just wrapped up its third consecutive September with gains, raising anticipation for a potential seventh positive October in a row.
Typically, Bitcoin’s strength in October follows weakness in September; however, last month’s 5% increase alters this pattern slightly.
The likelihood of another successful “Uptober” seems promising for several reasons according to Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares.
A report released on Wednesday by ADP revealed that private employers cut 32,000 jobs in September — an unexpected development that raises hopes for another Federal Reserve rate reduction. The CME FedWatch tool indicates there’s a 99% chance of a quarter-point rate cut on October 29th.
Mena explained that as liquidity expectations rise, Bitcoin often performs well — serving both as digital gold during fiscal uncertainty and as a high-risk asset when liquidity improves.
Recent market trends highlight this resilience; Bitcoin climbed from $108,000 to approximately $118,000 by midday Wednesday despite $2 billion worth of leveraged long liquidations last week. Year-to-date gains stand at 26% for the asset.
Regarding other economic indicators: due to the latest government shutdowns affecting operations at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), they may not release their planned jobs report this Friday.
“Expect short-term volatility due to data blackout and policy uncertainty,” Mena commented further adding if rates are cut come October alongside dollar weakening then conditions favor risk-on strategies which historically support bitcoin.”