The likelihood of Bitcoin (BTC) dropping below $100,000 before 2026 has increased significantly on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket. This shift indicates a growing pessimism following a volatile period for digital currencies.
Polymarket’s query, “Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?”, saw its odds jump from 47% on September 25 to 60% at the time this was written.
Just days ago, when Bitcoin was valued above $117,000, this same contract had only a 44% probability. However, confidence has waned as quickly as the price momentum diminished.
Analysis of BTC Price Trends
Currently trading at $108,950, Bitcoin has decreased by over 2% today and more than 6% over the past week. This decline is part of a broader downturn in the cryptocurrency market that has seen nearly $150 billion wiped off its market cap in just one day due to widespread liquidations and risk-averse behavior.
The betting volume for Polymarket’s December 31, 2025 contract now stands at $1.39 million. This increase suggests heightened interest in either hedging against or speculating on further declines.
While prediction markets do not offer absolute forecasts, they are valuable indicators of investor sentiment. The increasing odds highlight rising concerns about Bitcoin’s ability to maintain support levels amid tightening liquidity and macroeconomic pressures.
Nevertheless, with three months remaining in the year leading up to December end-2025 predictions remain split among investors who have witnessed dramatic shifts during ‘Uptober,’ characteristic of previous cycles within cryptocurrencies like BTC itself!