Analysts believe that the recent stagnation of Bitcoin may be linked to the performance of the Nasdaq, which is heavily weighted towards technology stocks. Ongoing macroeconomic challenges are impacting both stock markets and cryptocurrencies.
In a tweet shared on Tuesday, Ecoinometrics, a crypto research platform, indicated that Bitcoin is currently experiencing obstacles due to its correlation with equities. The firm’s analysts pointed out that Bitcoin tends to underperform when the Nasdaq 100—a benchmark comprising America’s top 100 companies—enters a phase characterized by mean reversion and below-average returns over twelve months.
Bitcoin encounters resistance from equity markets.
During periods when the Nasdaq 100 undergoes mean reversion with subpar twelve-month returns, Bitcoin typically lags behind and faces an increased risk of significant declines.
This scenario aligns perfectly with our current situation. pic.twitter.com/wkQmnpPrD4
— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) September 9, 2025
The concept of mean reversion suggests that asset prices will eventually return to their historical averages after experiencing significant fluctuations. Consequently, Ecoinometrics highlighted that Bitcoin is at greater risk for more substantial downturns at this moment in time.
The declines driven by tariffs in April 2025 and previous lows in August 2024 and November 2022 illustrate a trend where the Nasdaq regained stability before beginning its recovery. In each case, Bitcoin trailed behind the Nasdaq 100 but ultimately mirrored its movements later on.
However, what are the chances of this pattern repeating itself now?
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that the rolling thirty-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has nearly reached zero. The last instance these two assets diverged was in July 2025 when Bitcoin surged by eighteen percent to achieve a new all-time high (though it has since set another record high in August).
This temporary decoupling has sparked optimism among some analysts regarding future trends.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, expressed his belief to Decrypt, stating that this recent decline in correlation signifies “Bitcoin’s evolution as an independent asset class,” viewing it as either neutral or bullish news for investors. He further suggested that “high unemployment rates in the U.S., along with signs indicating economic slowdown could enhance Bitcoin’s attractiveness as protection against fiat currency devaluation.”
Apart from this decoupling phenomenon, another potential trigger for a surge in Bitcoin prices could be linked to an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, market participants widely anticipate a quarter-point interest rate reduction; users on Myriad—a prediction market initiated by DASTAN (the parent company of Decrypt)—assign nearly seventy-eight percent odds for such a cut occurring this September.
This situation might catalyze gains for riskier assets according to experts who have previously discussed these dynamics with Decrypt. Sean Dawson from Derive emphasized how futures related to Wall Street’s volatility index (VIX) expiring concurrently with Fed interest rate announcements could create conditions ripe for heightened volatility ahead.