The decade of cheap US natural gas may be nearing an end, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting Henry Hub prices to approach $5 per mmbtu in real terms by 2035, as AI-led data centre growth, gas-fired power demand and LNG exports tighten the market.
The forecast marks a significant reset for global gas markets as Henry Hub has been the pricing backbone for US LNG exports and long-term supply contracts. For most of the past decade, the benchmark remained in a $2-4 per mmbtu nominal range, aided by rapid shale development, near-zero-cost associated gas and steady productivity gains.
AI Data Centers
Wood Mackenzie said those conditions are no longer assured. Demand is rising at a sustained pace, while supply is becoming harder and costlier to grow.
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“The conditions that kept Henry Hub between $2 to $4/mmbtu for the best part of a decade are no longer all operating at full force,” said Kristy Kramer, head of LNG strategy and market development at Wood Mackenzie. “Rapid play development, near-zero-cost associated gas, and year-on-year productivity gains drove that era of cheap, stable prices. Those tailwinds have largely run their course.”
However, Rajesh Kumar Mediratta, MD & CEO, Indian Gas Exchange, said higher gas production and LNG liquefaction capacity could still cap prices despite rising data centre demand. “Under the same situation before the West Asia crisis, Henry Hub was around $4-7 per mmbtu and everyone believed it would remain heightened. But the situation reversed and during this crisis, Henry Hub was the cheapest benchmark even when Brent-linked LNG was costlier,” Mediratta said.
“I still feel despite high data centre demand, higher production of gas and liquefaction capacity of LNG will keep it depressed, maybe in the $3-5 range,” he said.
Wood Mackenzie sees the sharpest demand pressure from the US power sector. Load growth from data centres and AI investment is expected to add 17 billion cubic feet per day of gas demand by the mid-2030s, a near 50% increase from 2025 levels and equivalent to roughly half the demand of the existing US power sector.
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US LNG capacity is also on track to more than double, with the country forecast to account for over one-third of global LNG supply in the early 2030s. Investment decisions for new export capacity reached a record high in 2025, with more projects reaching final investment decision in 2026.
Domestic Acreage Constraints
On supply, Wood Mackenzie said the best acreage in Marcellus, Permian and Haynesville has already been developed. Associated gas, which accounted for roughly half of US gas supply growth over the past decade, is expected to contribute less than 20% over the next ten years.
TOPICSArtificial IntelligenceLNGThis article was first uploaded on August seven, twenty twenty-six, at twenty-eight minutes past nine in the night. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd