Even as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz raises hopes of easing supply disruptions, global oil markets could be heading into a fresh phase of tightening, with Brent crude expected to average $80-90 per barrel in the second half of 2026 as inventories continue to decline and demand returns, according to S&P Global Energy.
The forecast comes after the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran, which paved the way for restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following what S&P Global Energy described as the largest oil supply disruption in history.
The closure had effectively removed 15 million barrels per day (bpd) of Gulf liquids production from global markets, yet crude prices showed a surprisingly muted reaction as major consumers slashed imports and alternative supplies emerged.
“The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the largest oil supply disruption in history. It was — and for the moment, still is — extraordinary. But what is surprising — even extraordinary — is the limited price reaction,” said Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Head of Research for Oil Markets, Energy and Mobility at S&P Global Energy.
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Despite the reopening, S&P Global Energy cautioned that a full recovery in production and trade flows will take time. Global oil inventories are expected to continue falling through June and July, potentially reigniting upward pressure on prices.
“Prices will remain volatile, but our expectation is that Brent, which was around $76, could move into the $80-$90 range. Prices could fall to $65 or rise to $100 depending on how events unfold,” Burkhard said.
The agency’s base-case scenario assumes a gradual and uneven recovery in Gulf output, coupled with renewed demand for replenishing depleted inventories. Burkhard noted that production would not return immediately even if confidence in the safety of Hormuz is restored.
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Adding to the bullish outlook is the prospect of recovering demand from major Asian buyers. China, Japan and India sharply reduced crude purchases during the disruption, helping ease pressure on global supplies. A return to normal buying patterns could tighten the market significantly.
“A lot depends on China, which has cut purchases significantly. If China resumes buying, that would add upward pressure. Japan and India also reduced purchases sharply, and a return to previous buying patterns would support prices further,” Burkhard said.
S&P Global Energy analysts also identified Iran as a potentially major source of new supply growth. Under a favourable scenario, Iranian crude production could rise to around 3 million bpd in the second half of 2026 if exports continue unhindered.
“Iran has enormous potential,” Burkhard said, adding that access to international investment, technology and partnerships could make the country one of the fastest-growing oil producers globally over the next decade.
The report noted that while global oil demand in 2026 may remain 1-2 million bpd below last year’s levels, consumption is recovering faster than anticipated and could return close to previous highs by year-end.
For India, the developments underscore the growing importance of supply diversification. S&P Global Energy said India’s energy security strategy will increasingly depend on access to multiple fuel sources, including oil, gas, renewables, nuclear power, battery storage and biofuels.
The agency expects the United States, currently the largest source of global LNG supply growth, to play a larger role in India’s energy mix as New Delhi seeks to reduce concentration risks in its import basket.
The post-Hormuz reset, analysts said, marks a structural shift in global energy markets where resilience, diversified supply chains and secure access to resources are becoming as critical as price in determining long-term energy security.
TOPICSbusiness newscrudeECONOMYStrait of HormuzThis article was first uploaded on June twenty-three, twenty twenty-six, at forty-one minutes past seven in the evening. © IE Online Media Services (P) Ltd