India’s 100% import dependence on key minerals, over 90% reliance on China for graphite, and heavy supplier concentration across lithium, cobalt and copper are emerging as major risks for its s energy transition, with global supply disruptions threatening availability and costs.
India remains fully dependent on imports for lithium, cobalt and nickel, leaving critical sectors exposed to geopolitical tensions, export controls and price volatility. The risks are amplified by concentrated sourcing — China accounts for over 91% of synthetic graphite imports, while Finland supplies nearly 60% of cobalt oxide and hydroxide imports, highlighting structural vulnerabilities in supply chains.
The concentration extends to copper, a backbone of electrification. Tanzania accounted for over 50% of India’s copper ore imports in FY2025, marking marking a potential shift in sourcing patterns.
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“Reserves and processing capacity for these minerals remain highly concentrated… leading to price volatility, supply disruptions and reduced availability,” a briefing note by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) noted, underlining the growing fragility of global supply chains.
Downstream Processing Monopolies
The issue is not limited to sourcing but also extends to processing. A significant share of refining and downstream manufacturing capacity — particularly for graphite, lithium and cobalt — remains concentrated in a few countries, limiting India’s ability to diversify beyond raw material imports.
“Reserves and processing capacity for these minerals remain highly concentrated, while recent trends of export restrictions, resource nationalism, and onshoring or friend-shoring policies are fragmenting global markets that India relied upon. The consequences are price volatility, supply disruptions, and reduced availability, affecting import-dependent economies like India the most,” said Saloni Sachdeva Michael, Lead Energy Specialist, India Clean Energy Transition, South Asia, at IEEFA, and a co-author of the briefing note.
The report, “India’s critical mineral imports in 2025 and a shift towards supply diversification,” highlights that export restrictions, resource nationalism and domestic industrial policies in major producing countries are reshaping global trade flows, increasing risks for import-dependent economies like India.
Surging Demand Projections
These risks are rising at a time when demand is set to surge. Global demand for key minerals such as copper is projected to nearly double by 2040, driven by electrification, renewable energy and electric mobility.
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India’s own demand trajectory is steep. Domestic copper demand alone is expected to reach 8.8–9.8 million tonne by 2047, reflecting the scale of infrastructure and clean energy expansion underway.
At present, India’s import basket remains heavily skewed. Chile remains the largest supplier, contributing 2.8 million tonne of critical minerals between FY2019 and FY2025, while countries such as China, Belgium, Germany and Japan dominate multiple mineral supply chains.
Despite these risks, early diversification trends are visible. Imports are gradually shifting across regions, including increased sourcing from Mozambique and Madagascar for graphite, and broader engagement with countries such as Australia, Japan and the US.
“Building resilient supply chains, therefore, will require long-term, structured partnerships that move beyond government-to-government agreements and into deep industry collaboration, joint exploration, scaled research and development, technology transfer, and recycling,” said Kaira Rakheja, Energy Analyst, South Asia, at IEEFA, and a co-author of the briefing note.
However, the report cautions that diversification alone may not be sufficient. “Building resilient supply chains will require long-term partnerships, joint exploration, technology transfer and scaling of domestic capabilities,” it said.
With India targeting rapid expansion in renewable energy and electric mobility, secure access to critical minerals is becoming a central pillar of energy security.
As global competition for these resources intensifies, the report underscores that supply chain vulnerabilities — if left unaddressed –could translate into higher costs, supply bottlenecks and delays in India’s clean energy transition.
TOPICSEnergyThis article was first uploaded on June fourteen, twenty twenty-six, at thirty-nine minutes past seven in the evening. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd