The government’s surplus rice and wheat stocks are likely to offer a cushion against any possible shortfall in the production of these key food grains due to ‘below normal’ rains in the coming season.
Sources said that current central pool rice stocks at close to 40 million tonnes (MT) are at a decade high, despite record sales of over 10 MT under open market sale, allocation for ethanol manufacturing and Bharat rice initiatives in FY26.
Massive Buffer Margins
The current rice stock held with Food Corporation of India (FCI) is against a buffer of 13.54 MT for July 1. However, this grain stock excludes about 30 MT of grain yet to be received from millers. “We have hugely surplus grain stock sufficient to meet the supplies under the public distribution system and to carry out an open market sale scheme,” an official said.
This is despite the likelihood of a decline in grain production in the coming kharif seasons due to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast of below-normal rainfall in the monsoon season. Lower output may impact paddy procurement by the government agencies which commences from October 1 . “Such stocks typically peak in April-May, and the current levels are quite healthy compared to the historical levels seen during this period,” rating agency ICRA stated in its southwest monsoon outlook report.
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At present, the FCI has over 51.32 MT of wheat as the central pool stock against a buffer and strategic reserve norm of 27.58 MT for July 1. High stock is mainly because of over 31 MT of wheat procured during 2026-27 marketing season (April-June), the highest level in the last four years.
The current wheat stock with the government agencies, is highest since June 1, 2021.
Public Distribution
Annually, the FCI supplies around 36-38 MT of rice and 18-20 MT of wheat under the free ration scheme or Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) to around 810 million people. Procurement under the minimum support price (MSP) from farmers has been in the range of 75 to 80 MT in the last many years leading to a piling up of stocks.
Farmers will commence sowing of kharif crops including paddy, pulses and oilseeds next month following the onset of the monsoon.
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Officials said the quantum of rains following the met department’s forecast of ‘below normal’ rains in the ‘monsoon core zone’ consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country, would be crucial for grain production. However experts say that the nature of the spread and distribution of monsoon rains across the four months would be crucial for crop yield.
TOPICSbasmati ricebasmati rice exportThis article was first uploaded on May thirty-one, twenty twenty-six, at one minutes past seven in the evening. © The Indian Express (P) Ltd