An unusual spike in temperature in many parts of the country has raised the spectre of severe crop damages and reduced food grain and horticulture output, with the consequent fall in gross value added in agriculture. According to farmer organisations and experts, recurring heatwaves could hit sowing of kharif crops which is to start soon, and crop yields at the grain-forming stage. Reduced soil moisture could also adversely affect the next winter crop.
“Heatwaves are resulting in pest attacks on crops, which was unheard of a decade ago. Application of pesticides and fungicides is also rising,” Gurbakshish Singh, a farmer from Bimbar village of Sangrur district, Punjab said. High temperatures especially during March just prior to the last rabi wheat harvesting in Punjab, lead to shrivelled grains, forced maturity and loss of productivity, he noted. In addition to cereals, pulse crops of both short- and long-duration varieties are also impacted by higher temperatures during the harvesting periods of October-November and February-March as winter months have shrunk, Anant Bahadur Singh, a farmer from Ali Nagar village, Amethi district of Uttar Pradesh said.
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Shrinking Winters
According to a scientist with the Indian Council for Agricultural Research, heat brings down the average yield losses between 15-25% for wheat alone. “High night temperature adversely impacts pollination, and grain formation could be affected, especially in cereals,” Tapan Kumar Adhya, ex-director, Central Rice Research Institute and professor, school of biotechnology, KIIT university, said. Adhya said that the impact of rising temperatures is more profound on cereals such as rice and wheat than on other field crops.
“High temperatures at the terminal or grain-filling stage of the crop, especially during late February and early March, impact the yield the most. However, several new seed varieties developed in the last decade are better equipped to deal with heat stress,” Ratan Tiwari, director, Indian Institute of wheat and barley research, said.
Heatwaves in March, 2022 hugely impacted wheat crop yield and India had to impose an export ban. In the current year, the temperature in early March was high, later in the month, unseasonal rains impacted the quality of the yield.
“With global warming, average temperatures are rising and have crossed previous thresholds. They now impact food output and inflation much more than even rains and reservoirs do,” according to a recent HSBC India report. The report stated that with improving irrigation facilities over time, the low rains problem has been partly circumvented, especially in certain areas like north-western India. The report stated that in El Niño years specifically, temperature spikes have become more likely than rainfall deficit; and these spikes are intensifying.
Under the national innovations in climate resilient agriculture, the Indian Council for Agricultural Research has identified 310 districts as vulnerable while 201 districts have been categorised as ‘high’ in terms of climate vulnerability. The risk and vulnerability assessment of agriculture to climate change has been carried out at district-level for 651 predominantly agricultural districts as per Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) protocols.
Adapting to Volatility
According to an agriculture ministry official, location-specific climate resilient technologies such as the system of rice intensification, aerobic rice, direct seeding of rice, zero till wheat sowing, cultivation of climate resilient varieties tolerant to extreme weather conditions such as drought and heat, and in-situ incorporation of rice residues are being encouraged.
“Irrigation coverage has now reached 56% of net sown area, up from 49% in 2014–15 when the country faced severe back-to-back drought years. This has made cultivation relatively more resilient to such volatility (in monsoon activity),” Pushan Sharma, director, Crisil Intelligence, had earlier stated.
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A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) last month stated that heat was driving significant productivity losses on farms across the world. According to the report, yields of staple crops like maize and wheat have declined by 7.5% and 6% per one degree celsius of warming and are projected to decline by up to an additional 10% for every one degree celsius warming in the future.
The FAO report suggested, “Climate-resilient practices, improved water and land management, the development of heat-tolerant crops and breeds and strengthened risk governance can reduce vulnerability and protect livelihoods.”
TOPICScrop lossCrop pricesThis article was first uploaded on May twenty-four, twenty twenty-six, at forty-five minutes past seven in the evening.