Bitcoin is currently experiencing a pullback from the upper limit of its ascending channel on the day of Jerome Powell’s final FOMC meeting. A daily MACD bearish crossover has been confirmed, indicating that prices are retreating towards significant SMA support levels. This article delves into the implications of the daily chart, potential price movements, and how the transition to incoming Chair Kevin Warsh at the Fed introduces new uncertainties.
As of April 29, Bitcoin ($BTC) is trading at $75,834, reflecting a decline of 0.67% for the day after reaching a peak of $77,904 before sellers regained control ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. This pullback coincides with Jerome Powell’s last press conference as he prepares to step down on May 15; additionally, today marks a shift in momentum as indicated by a negative MACD histogram for the first time in several weeks following an impressive recovery of 21% throughout April.
Daily MACD Bearish Crossover at Descending Channel Resistance
The daily chart illustrates Bitcoin navigating two overlapping patterns. The ascending channel established from February lows around $59,000 remains intact and has framed April’s recovery trajectory. Conversely, a broader descending channel formed by red trendlines extending from February highs near $85,000 serves as resistance against macro-level recovery efforts; notably, SMA 200 sits within this upper boundary at $84,423 acting as significant overhead resistance.
The price tested near $78,000 within this ascending channel on April 28 but retreated sharply afterward—recording today’s high at $77,904 before settling back to $75,834 during writing. A critical technical indicator today is indeed the MACD; it shows readings with line values set at 1,650.21 for MACD line and signal line reading at 1 ,815 .33 while histogram reflects -165 .13 confirming bearish crossover in this timeframe . Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe remarked via X that typical behavior sees Bitcoin pulling back prior to or during FOMC events but warned that closing below$73 ,000 would indicate deeper corrections rather than just routine resets.
Key Levels: Support and Resistance Analysis
The immediate support level stands firm with SMA20 located around$75 ,685 which current pricing presses against closely.A daily close beneath removes initial dynamic buffer bringing attention towardSMA50 ($72 ,082)andSMA100($72 ,659)which converge tightly between$72k-$73k identified by analysts marking lower boundary ascension channels.A confirmed closure below$72k would disrupt structure opening retest ranges between65 k-68 k where heavy accumulation occurred amid Iran-driven corrections seen Q12026 .
On upside,$80 k remains primary resistance point & bull-case target capable invalidating current bearish signals above which liesSMA200 ($84 ,423)alongside upper boundaries descending red channels representing crucial macro levels bulls must clear ensuring structural trend reversals confirmation.Daily closures exceeding volume above$80 k shifts bias nearer neutral territory again.
ETF Flows & Derivatives Context
<p.Data tracked indicates spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows totaling89 .68 million dollarsonApril28 breaking eight-day inflow streak amounting up total inflows reaching over two billion dollars.Based upon data published throughPhemex analysis reveals Bitcoins have fallen post-meeting outcomes across eight out nineFOMC meetingswithin48 hours driven primarily traders unwinding pre-event long positions instead influenced directly decisions made themselves.Current setups showBTC enteredFOMConanApril rallyof21 %withFear&GreedIndex hoveringaround40 mirroring previous patterns resulting sharp declines following meetings held recently.
Powell’s Exit & Warsh Uncertainty Ahead
This particular meeting carries additional uncertainty beyond mere rate decisions.Powel tenure concludesMay15withincomingChairKevinWarsh expected preside overJune16-17FOMCas his inaugural session.As reported institutional flows sensitive shiftsFed communication tone throughout2026 while oil prices hovernear105dollarsper barrel further pressuring expectations surrounding rate cuts.Warsh’s hawkish reputation contrasts starkly comparedtoPowellcould influenceJune dot plot direction tightening liquidity outlook risk assets making48-hourpost-FOMCwindowonApril30&May1critical test determining whetherpullbacks stabilize extendtoward$72K.
ShouldBitcoin maintainSMA20at75K685 reclaim77K500 upon closing basis thenascendingchannelremains intact signalingpotential temporary naturebearishMACDcrossover.Conversely,a closure beneath72082confirmsdeepercorrection underway.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
A bearish crossover occurs when shorter-term moving averages cross below longer-term moving averages indicating potential downward momentum in price trends.
A close under these key thresholds may signal deeper corrections leading potentially towards lower support areas such as those observed previously between65 K-68 K range where substantial accumulations were noted earlier this year due Iran-driven market fluctuations affecting overall performance metrics significantly across crypto markets overall contextually speaking here too!
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> ETF flow data provides insights into investor sentiment showing whether there are net inflows or outflows impacting demand supply dynamics within respective asset classes including cryptocurrencies like bitcoin itself! Analyzing these trends helps gauge market conditions effectively assessing future performance expectations accordingly!
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> The Federal Reserve influences monetary policy affecting interest rates liquidity available thus indirectly impacting investment behaviors among traders/investors involved crypto-assets often creating volatility based news announcements relating their decisions taken here subsequently thereafter !
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