On Monday, Fidelity Digital Assets unveiled its Q2 2026 Signals Report, revealing that Bitcoin holds a net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) score of 0.21, while Ethereum and Solana are still in capitulation territory.
Key Insights:
Fidelity Digital Assets has assigned Bitcoin’s Q1 2026 NUPL score a value of 0.21, positioning $BTC within the cautious “Hope-Fear” zone.
This year has seen $BTC, ETH, and $SOL experience declines of 25%, 31%, and 38% respectively. These downturns were partly influenced by $2.56 billion in liquidations recorded in January.
The transfer value of Ethereum’s stablecoin reached an unprecedented high exceeding $18 trillion during Q2 2026, indicating significant growth in real-world utility.
Fidelity Reports Bitcoin Investors Are Just Above Break-Even as Market Enters ‘Repair Phase’
The current NUPL reading for Bitcoin indicates that investors find themselves in what Fidelity researchers term the “Hope-Fear” zone—a state characterized by modest unrealized profits alongside cautious market sentiment. Although this reading does not confirm the establishment of a solid bottom for prices, historical data suggests that similar NUPL levels have preceded an average one-year return of approximately 63%.
The overall market landscape appears less stable; Ethereum’s NUPL plummeted by an alarming rate of 171% over the first quarter—from a positive score of 0.17 to -0.12—coinciding with a price drop of nearly 29%. Meanwhile, Solana’s NUPL fell by about148%, landing at -0.67 as its price dropped by around33%. However, both networks are showing tentative signs of stabilization after reaching local lows earlier this February.
This year-to-date (YTD), all three assets remain firmly negative; Bitcoin is down by25%, Ethereum has decreasedby31%, and Solana has seen a declineof38% since January1st. The one-year rolling performance presents mixed results: whileBitcoin is down17%,Solana has fallen33%; conversely,Ethereum stands out positively withan increaseof15%over the past twelve months.
A pair off substantial liquidation events contributed to this early-year drawdown; analysts from Fidelity note thatthe crypto market absorbed$2.56 billionin forced selling onJanuary30and$2.13 billiononFebruary4th.Additionally,macroeconomic challenges such as uncertainty surrounding Kevin Warsh’s nominationas Fed Chairand shifting expectations regarding interest rates for2026have intensified risk-averse sentiment across digital assets.
The momentum signal forBitcoin turned negative onOctober18thof last year when$BTCwasa t $107k,and it remainsinnegative territory since then.DuringQ1of2026,$BTC fluctuated between$62kand$76kwhilethe market endeavoredto establishsupport levels.
The Yardstick metric—a measure comparingBitcoin’s market capwithits hash rate—entered intoits“undervalued”zonebackinOctober2025.Fidelityanalysts point outthat78percentofthepast91daysfellbelownegative one standard deviationfromthemean.Previousbear markets experiencedsimilar conditions lasting298 daysin2018and299 daysin2022,suggestingthat October2026couldbe crucialforcycle-focusedinvestors.....
$Btc dominance continued risingintoQ22026after retreatingin late-2025.TheFidelityreport interprets expandingdominanceasindicatingcapital concentrationwithin bitcoinwithlimitedrotationintoaltcoins.A plateau or reversal indominancecould signalanearly shift towardrisk-on behavior accordingtothe report..
Ethereums on-chain usage metrics reveal adifferent scenario.Transaction activity increased34 percentquarter-over-quarter.Active addresses climbed34 percentwhile newaddressesrose18 percent,both surpassingpeaklevels fromthebullish periodof20…
Ethereumsstablecointransfervalue exceededall-time highs overthepast12months,reachingmorethan$18trillionintotal transfer volume.The30-dayaverage transfer valuemovedfrom59.. . . … . .. ……. .. … … ……. ……………
SOLANA’S STABLECOIN TRANSFER VOLUMES HELD STEADY THROUGH THE PRICE DOWNTURN WITH THE CHAIN’S AVERAGE TRANSFER VALUE RISING BY EIGHT PERCENT TO SEVEN POINT TWO BILLION DOLLARS MONTHLY ACTIVE AND NEW ADDRESSES ON SOLANA ROSE FIFTY PERCENT AND THIRTY FIVE PERCENT RESPECTIVELY DURING Q ONE TWENTY TWENTY SIX REACHING THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE TWO THOUSAND TWENTY ONE NETWORK FEES WHICH PEAKED DURING THE MEME COIN PERIOD FROM TWO THOUSAND TWENTY FOUR TO EARLY TWO THOUSAND TWENTY FIVE REMAIN IN A DOWNWARD TREND FIDELITY’S RESEARCHERS DESCRIBE CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS AS A REPAIR PHASE RATHER THAN A LATE CYCLE PROFIT ENVIRONMENT WITH ANY SUSTAINED EXPANSION DEPENDANT ON GEOPOLITICAL DEESCALATION REGULATORY CLARITY AND CLEARER FED POLICY PATH
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