Crisil stated that the revenues, which were stagnant for the past four fiscals, will decline 18-20% in FY26 compared to previous fiscal despite some cushion from a surge in shipments in the first quarter in anticipation of the tariff hike.
The bulk of the country’s seafood exports to the US is ‘Vannamei Shrimp’. Ecuador had a 19% in the USA’s annual seafood import of $ 6 billion.
From export volumes to profit margins
India’s seafood exports, mostly frozen shrimp, were $ 7.38 billion in FY25, with the United States having a share of 35% ($ 2.8 billion).
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Crisil stated that Indian shrimp exporters enjoy the advantage of an evolved domestic infrastructure and strong distribution networks in the US, while production in other countries is not expected to rise substantially in the near term.
“The ability of Indian processors to divert their shrimp exports to alternative markets such as the UK (due to the India-UK free trade agreement), China and Russia will support volume to some extent in the second half of this fiscal,” according to the agency report.
The US has long been a preferred destination for shrimp exporters because of easy market access, higher growth prospects, better profit margin and repeat customer approvals, according to the report.
Rama Shankar Naik, Commissioner of fisheries, Andhra Pradesh, the biggest exporter of shrimp in the country, had recently told FE that the seafood exports have been ‘hit hard’ as effective duties imposed by US has been increased to 59.71% which including countervailing (5.76%) and anti-dumping duties (3.96%) along with 50% tariff announced for India by President Donald Trump.
Crisil noted that It continued to be a preferred destination despite anti-dumping and countervailing duties, and the recent reciprocal tariff of 10% in April 2025, as customers absorbed a portion of the tariff.
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“The lower revenues, coupled with the inability to pass on the tariff burden to customers, will erode the operating profit margin by 150-200 basis points,” Crisil stated. It also noted that the combination of lower revenues and subdued margins will weaken the debt protection metrics of players.
The report of the agencywasbased on an analysis of 63 shrimp exporters, accounting for over 55% of the industry revenues.
Andhra Pradesh accounts for 60% of India’s shrimp export. Seafood exports are dominated by frozen shrimp, which accounts for a significant share. Other major exports include frozen fish, cuttlefish, squids, dried seafood, and live and chilled items.
It stated that falling business volume will also cause operating margin to plunge to its decadal low of 5% -5.5% in the 2025-26.
Search for new markets
The agency has identified major factors including the impact of the tariff plus levies, lower capacity utilisation due to loss of revenue and shrinking sale of value-added and large shrimps, which were mostly exported to the US and fetched higher revenues and margin.
“The headwinds will impact processors and discourage farmers from continuing to invest in shrimp culture. Farmers incur upfront costs for land lease, seed and feed,” Rahul Guha, senior director, Crisil Ratings stated.
He stated that investments in equipment for aeration, electricity and overall pond management and biosecurity have substantially raised the production cost.