In his recent video, Benjamin Cowen, a prominent figure in cryptocurrency analysis, examined the fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price by referencing historical trends and seasonal patterns.
As Bitcoin approaches the $77,000 mark again, Cowen cautioned investors about possible vulnerabilities that may arise in the upcoming weeks.
The analyst pointed out that Bitcoin’s current path closely resembles the cycles observed during “US midterm election years,” specifically those of 2018 and 2022. He noted that Bitcoin experienced a low of $60,000 back in February before bouncing back to establish a higher low by late March and early April.
However, Cowen emphasized that this pattern should not be interpreted as an unequivocal bullish indicator; instead, he suggested that “time-based capitulation” within a bearish market holds more significance than mere price drops.
A particularly noteworthy aspect of his analysis was the anticipated risks for late April and early May. Cowen forecasts that Bitcoin might hit a local peak towards the end of April—similar to what occurred in 2018—before experiencing another decline at the start of May after reaching this high point.
The Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for April 29th is highlighted as one of the major risk elements impacting market conditions. Currently, Bitcoin is encountering resistance at its 100-day moving average; if it surpasses this level, attention will shift to its next significant resistance point at the 200-day moving average.
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Cowen remarked on how essential it is to monitor USDT and USDC dominance for insights into market trends. He indicated that stablecoin dominance finds support around its own 100-day moving average.
This observation implies that there remains a strong inclination among investors to convert risky assets like Bitcoin into cash reserves; thus suggesting potential retests around the $60,000 threshold later this year.
According to Benjamin Cowen’s analysis, there’s a high probability that Bitcoin will face rejection from bear market resistance levels. A genuine bottom can only be validated after these levels are consistently tested throughout this year.
The analyst also pointed out historical data indicating May and June typically represent periods of weakness within crypto markets.
*This does not constitute investment advice.*