Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, shares his insights on the possible future of Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin holdings, leveraging his expertise in post-quantum cryptography.
During an episode of the Rollup podcast, Hoskinson showcased his background in quantum cryptography. He has contributed to NIST standards and has been involved in over 250 research publications. Notably, he was part of a team that authored a pivotal paper addressing Bitcoin’s vulnerabilities against quantum threats back in 2019 while developing post-quantum systems.
Three Quantum Scenarios for Bitcoin
Hoskinson identified three potential scenarios regarding Bitcoin’s response to quantum computing threats. The first scenario involves taking no action at all, which could lead to catastrophic consequences if a powerful quantum computer emerges.
The second scenario suggests implementing a soft fork that incorporates post-quantum signatures. In this case, Hoskinson estimates that approximately 15-20% of the $BTC supply may be compromised due to vulnerable legacy keys.
The third option is BIP 361—considered by Hoskinson as the most drastic approach—which includes partial recovery features but could still result in around 1.7 million $BTC being lost forever.
Satoshi’s coins and lost wallets
— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) April 17, 2026
A user on X sought clarification from Hoskinson about whether these estimated losses would indeed occur with the potential loss of those 1.7 million Bitcoins. His succinct reply was: “Lost wallets and Satoshi’s coins.”
Satoshi’s Vulnerable Holdings Estimated at Over One Million Coins
According to Hoskinson, even with recent improvements proposed for Bitcoin through BIP-361, not all Bitcoins susceptible to quantum attacks can be safeguarded effectively.
This new proposal aims to protect up to one-third (or more than seven million coins valued at $536 billion) by freezing assets that do not transition into addresses resistant to quantum threats moving forward.
However, he cautions that this measure will still leave approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins exposed; notably, around 1.1 million belong directly to Satoshi Nakamoto himself while legacy wallets likely make up much of the remaining amount at risk.