As the Bitcoin ($BTC) recovery approaches its one-week mark, experts describe it as “delicate,” especially given the geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This insight comes from Nic Puckrin, a market analyst and founder of CoinBureau.
Puckrin expressed his views to Cointelegraph, stating that even if hostilities cease immediately, their long-term effects will likely dominate discussions through 2026 and significantly influence Q2 narratives. He anticipates that interest rate reductions may not occur until late Q3 or possibly Q4.
“For Bitcoin to reach $90,000, we would require several conditions to align: a ceasefire leading to reduced geopolitical tensions, a consistent decline in oil prices towards $80 per barrel, and ideally economic data that eases fears of stagflation,” he remarked.
If Bitcoin manages to finish this week above $71,000, it could indicate further upward movement for $BTC, with resistance anticipated around the $74,000 mark. As of now, TradingView indicates it is trading at approximately $71,276.
The current conflict has triggered an inflation surge as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index on Friday. This development dampens expectations for additional interest rate cuts in 2026 since such measures typically support asset price increases.
Related: An Analyst’s Perspective on Bitcoin and Ether Approaching Potential Trend Reversal Levels
The Decline of Bitcoin Amidst Failed Iran Negotiations and Escalating US Threats
Bitcoin experienced an approximate rise of 5.8% starting April 6th when it surpassed $73K but subsequently fell back down to about $71K by April 11th due to reports regarding unsuccessful negotiations between Iran and the United States as noted by The Kobeissi Letter.
“Peace discussions seem to have come abruptly to an end,” stated The Kobeissi Letter while emphasizing that “the outcome was arguably one of our worst-case scenarios.”
In light of these failed negotiations between nations involved in this crisis situation; President Donald Trump announced plans for a naval blockade around Hormuz Strait aimed at Iranian vessels during his address on Saturday.
“I have also instructed our Navy personnel with orders targeting any vessel operating within international waters which has paid tolls imposed by Iran—no entity paying illegal fees shall navigate safely across open seas,” Trump declared during his announcement last weekend.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for determining US interest rate policies remains divided over potential future cuts due primarily concerns regarding inflation linked directly back towards ongoing warfare issues globally impacting economies everywhere they touch base upon them presently speaking out loud today still echoing loudly across markets worldwide too!
The FOMC did not dismiss possibilities surrounding possible hikes should inflation persist above targeted levels set forth earlier outlined previously documented within minutes shared following March meetings held earlier this year where decisions made were thoroughly discussed amongst committee members present there discussing matters extensively without resolution yet reached just yet either way forward looking ahead cautiously indeed!
CME Fedwatch tool suggests over ninety-eight percent likelihood exists concerning maintaining current rates ranging anywhere between three hundred fifty-to-three hundred seventy-five basis points upcoming next two scheduled meetings occurring respectively April twenty-ninth & June seventeenth! However probabilities decrease significantly dropping down closer toward sixty-five percent chance observed coming July twenty-ninth meeting date slated ahead meanwhile thirty-three point six percent possibility emerges indicating potential cut-down twenty-five basis points then thereafter!”
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