According to a recent analysis conducted by Mercado Bitcoin, a Brazilian cryptocurrency exchange, Bitcoin tends to surpass traditional safe-haven assets like gold in the two months following significant global crises.
The research, spearheaded by Rony Szuster, who is the head of research at this Latin American crypto platform, investigated 60-day periods after economic or geopolitical disturbances such as the COVID-19 pandemic and escalations in U.S. tariffs. The findings revealed that Bitcoin yielded better returns than both gold and the S&P 500 during each of these analyzed intervals.
For instance, in April of last year, following an announcement from the Trump administration regarding extensive tariffs, Bitcoin’s price surged by 24% over the subsequent two months. In contrast, gold experienced an increase of only 8%, while the S&P 500 saw a modest gain of just 4%, according to their report.
A similar trend was observed at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020 when BTC climbed by 21%, leaving other assets behind.
Szuster warned that evaluating Bitcoin’s performance too quickly after a crisis can lead to misleading conclusions.
“It’s akin to watching just a few minutes of a film and believing you already know how it concludes,” he explained. “During such times, investors often liquidate positions to mitigate risk or generate cash flow; even typically stable assets may decline.”
This behavior occurs as investors seek liquidity; however, data indicates that Bitcoin has consistently rebounded afterward. This pattern seems to be re-emerging amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict where so far only Bitcoin remains in positive territory among these three asset classes according to Szuster’s observations.
The data supports this assertion: since hostilities began, Bitcoin has appreciated more than 2.2%, rising from approximately $65,800 to $67,300 at present. Meanwhile, gold—considered a conventional safe haven—has seen its value decrease by around 11%, while the S&P index suffered its most significant monthly drop since last year with losses totaling about 4.4%.
Despite its inherent volatility issues over time frames spanning ten years or more,Bitcoin has emerged as one of best-performing assets, Szuster concluded.
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