India’s crude oil imports fell nearly 15% month-on-month in March to 4,444 thousand barrels per day (tbpd) from 5,202 tbpd in February, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz sharply altered sourcing patterns, with Gulf suppliers losing share and Russia emerging as the dominant contributor.
Great Rebound
The shift in country dynamics was stark. Russia’s crude supplies surged from 1,041 tbpd in February to 1,969 tbpd in March — an increase of nearly 89% — pushing its share to roughly 44% of India’s total imports, compared to about 20% in the previous month.
This marks a sharp rebound in Russian flows, which had declined steadily from 2,089 tbpd in June 2025 to just 1,041 tbpd in February 2026, before spiking again in March to near peak levels.
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“Russian crude buying in March remained strong, with volumes reaching levels last seen during peak processing periods. We expect this momentum to continue into April, alongside the return of Venezuelan crude supplies, with volumes nearing levels seen in 2018–19,” said Nikhil Dubey, Senior Refining Analyst, Kpler.
In contrast, traditional Gulf suppliers saw a sharp erosion in both volumes and share.
Imports from Iraq plunged from 969 tbpd in February to 235 tbpd in March — a steep decline of around 76%, significantly reducing its share in India’s crude basket. Saudi Arabia shipments fell from 1,036 tbpd to 572 tbpd, down about 45%, while the United Arab Emirates recorded a drop from 554 tbpd to 203 tbpd, a decline of nearly 63%.
The combined share of these key West Asian suppliers shrank sharply in March, reflecting the impact of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route for India’s oil imports.
Other Gulf-linked supplies also weakened. Kuwait imports dropped sharply from 149 tbpd in February to 58 tbpd in March, while supplies from the Saudi-Kuwaiti Neutral Zone declined from 121 tbpd to 68 tbpd, indicating widespread disruption across the Gulf supply chain.
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At the same time, Indian refiners ramped up sourcing from alternative regions to offset the supply shock. Imports from Angola more than tripled from 103 tbpd in February to 327 tbpd in March, while supplies from the Republic of the Congo rose from zero to 60 tbpd and Gabon increased sharply from zero to 82 tbpd.
African sourcing gains were complemented by steady flows from Latin America. Colombia imports remained relatively stable at 126 tbpd compared to 138 tbpd in February, while Brazil stood at 137 tbpd against 304 tbpd earlier, indicating partial substitution amid supply constraints.
Additional diversification was visible in smaller but notable inflows. Ecuador contributed 68 tbpd in March compared to zero in February, while Libya supplies increased to 68 tbpd from negligible levels earlier, highlighting opportunistic sourcing to manage supply gaps.
US imports, however, declined from 216 tbpd in February to 164 tbpd in March, suggesting that global supply constraints extended beyond the Gulf region.
The sharp shift in sourcing has also prompted a structural recalibration in how India tracks crude prices.
Structural Shift
India has reworked its crude oil basket, with the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) revising the benchmark to better reflect evolving import patterns as refiners diversify procurement amid global supply disruptions.
The revised basket is now weighted at 61.02% Brent-linked sweet crude and 38.98% Oman-Dubai sour crude, compared with the earlier mix of 78.71% sour and 21.29% sweet crude.
The rejig marks a significant shift in India’s pricing framework, aligning the benchmark with the growing share of non-Gulf and sweet crude imports, particularly from Russia and other diversified sources.
TOPICSCrude oilThis article was first uploaded on April one, twenty twenty-six, at fifty-eight minutes past eight in the night.