On March 13, the United States economy released a series of data that ranged from unsettling to downright alarming.
The GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 was adjusted downward to 0.7%, a significant drop from the initial estimate of 1.4%, following a robust growth rate of 4.4% in the third quarter.
In January, core PCE inflation increased by 3.1% year-over-year, with a monthly rise of 0.4%. Meanwhile, durable goods orders for January remained nearly unchanged, and core capital goods orders were stagnant as well, with shipments declining by 0.1%. Real consumer spending saw only a slight increase of just 0.1%.
This data release was delayed due to last year’s lengthy shutdown and coincided with the onset of conflict between the US and Israel regarding Iran on February 28th. Oil prices surged to $119.50 this week before settling back down near $100 per barrel; gasoline prices in the US have risen by about 20%, now averaging $3.58 per gallon since hostilities began.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on March 17-18, where futures markets have reduced their expectations for interest rate cuts in December from two quarter-point reductions down to just one.
In contrast, Bitcoin has shown early signs of stabilization recently; since March 11th, there has been an influx into ETFs again while spot demand appears to be recovering slightly alongside negative funding conditions and decreased options volatility.
As we head into the weekend, Bitcoin is trading around $70,600 at press time after reaching an intraday high of $74,000 on March 13th; according to Farside Investors data from March9 through March12th., US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted net inflows totaling $583 million following an outflow amounting to $348 million on March6th.
However, it’s important to note that Bitcoin’s delicate recovery faces significant challenges amid adverse macroeconomic conditions: sluggish growth rates combined with persistent inflationary pressures and limited options available for intervention by the Federal Reserve are complicating matters further.
The economy shows signs of weakening
The revision made regarding GDP reveals more than what is apparent at first glance.
This downward adjustment stems primarily from declines in exports as well as consumer spending along with government expenditure and investment activities.
A more accurate reflection of domestic demand—real final sales directed towards private domestic purchasers—slowed down significantly from an initial estimate showing growth at only 1.9%, compared to 2 .4 % previously reported along with a decline from the previous quarter’s figure which stood at 2 .9 % .
This indicates that when entering into this Iranian oil crisis situation , our economic foundation appeared weaker than what had initially been suggested within those earlier reports pertaining specifically towards Q4 performance metrics . Nominally speaking , consumer expenditures did increase modestly by about zero point four percent during January ; however , real consumption barely budged overall despite these nominal gains observed across various sectors .