A collaborative report from $ARK Invest and Unchained has highlighted significant long-term risks that Bitcoin faces due to advancements in quantum computing.
The findings indicate that around 34.6% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is at risk from potential breakthroughs in quantum technology, while a more reassuring 65.4% remains relatively secure for the time being.
The analysis suggests that while the threat posed by quantum computing isn’t an immediate emergency for Bitcoin, it is nonetheless a critical issue warranting ongoing observation and preparation over time.
As per the report, current quantum computers lack the capability to compromise the elliptic curve cryptography utilized by Bitcoin. Researchers emphasize that existing technologies are still in their infancy—referred to as “NISQ”—and require thousands of logical qubits along with advanced error-correcting capabilities before they could potentially jeopardize Bitcoin’s cryptographic framework. Consequently, $ARK Invest and Unchained propose viewing quantum risks as a gradual evolution rather than an abrupt event dubbed “Q-day.”
A considerable segment of Bitcoins susceptible to these threats resides within older address types. It’s estimated that about 1.7 million $BTC exist in outdated P2PK addresses, many of which are likely lost forever. Furthermore, approximately 5.2 million $BTC are located in reused addresses or various other formats—including portable Taproot addresses—which could theoretically be moved to safer alternatives. This means roughly 35% of total supply is viewed as vulnerable to quantum threats; conversely, about 65%, translating into nearly 13 million $BTC, appears more robust under present circumstances.
An important aspect discussed within this study was BIP-360—a proposal circulating among members of the Bitcoin community aimed at diminishing vulnerabilities related to Taproot on its key-path side through a new output type called “Pay-to-Merkle-Root.” The report identifies BIP-360 as a crucial advancement towards enhancing resilience against quantum attacks while maintaining Taproot’s operational integrity; however, authors caution that incorporating post-quantum cryptography into Bitcoin will pose significant technical and governance challenges.
$ARK Invest and Unchained further noted proactive measures already underway within the Bitcoin ecosystem regarding potential quantum threats—highlighting Coinbase’s establishment of a dedicated advisory board on this topic; Ethereum Foundation’s formation of a specialized team focused on post-quantum strategies; alongside Strategy’s initiative set for launching enhanced security protocols for Bitcoin transactions. Nevertheless, consensus remains elusive concerning which post-quantum approach should be prioritized for integration into Bitcoin systems; additionally, debates surrounding whether older coins at risk should be frozen may arise down the line.
The report also outlines three distinct scenarios regarding future developments: one pessimistic scenario envisions an unforeseen rapid advancement in Quantum technology catching members of the $BTC community unprepared; another optimistic outlook foresees slowed progress leading toward mature solutions tailored specifically for bitcoin security needs over time; finally—the most plausible balanced scenario posits it may take between ten and twenty years before Quantum computers become genuine threats against $ BTC , allowing developers ample opportunity develop effective countermeasures .
* This does not constitute investment advice .