The sudden loss of 15 million barrels a day of Gulf oil exports could drive global crude prices to $150 a barrel as markets struggle to rebalance supply and demand following a disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new analysis by Wood Mackenzie.
The scale of the disruption would be unprecedented. Gulf producers together pump about 20 million barrels of liquids, meaning the loss of 15 million b/d of exports from the global market would represent one of the largest supply shocks the oil industry has ever faced.
“With 15 million b/d suddenly offline, global oil demand will need to fall to rebalance the market,” Wood Mackenzie said.
Crude prices have already surged past $100 a barrel this week as buyers scramble to secure remaining supplies. Import-dependent markets have been particularly exposed as competition for alternative crude intensifies.
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Asia, which receives the bulk of Gulf crude exports, is under the greatest pressure. Buyers in India, China and other Asian economies are rushing to secure alternative cargoes, pushing up prices for crude from West Africa and Latin America.
Severe Impact
Europe is also facing acute challenges. In 2025, Gulf refineries supplied about 60% of Europe’s jet fuel and 30% of its diesel—volumes that have now been entirely cut off.
The strain is increasingly visible in refined fuel markets. Jet fuel crack spreads in northwest Europe have surged to around $100 per barrel, implying crude prices close to $200/bbl Brent, while diesel cracks have jumped to about $70/bbl, four to five times pre-war levels.
Strategic petroleum reserves could provide only limited relief. Although International Energy Agency member countries hold stocks equivalent to around 90 days of imports, sustained releases of such magnitude are unprecedented and would still cover less than half of global demand.
“When the conflict ends, cranking up the supply chain won’t be swift,” said Simon Flowers, chairman and chief analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Product barrels in storage at refineries or in port might be moved on vessels quite quickly. But if wells are shut-in for a prolonged period, restarting production to full output could take weeks or even longer.”
Alternative supply sources are also unlikely to fill the gap quickly. Higher prices may encourage US producers to accelerate drilling, but output from the Lower 48 shale basins could add only a few hundred thousand barrels per day over three to six months, a fraction of the 15 million b/d shortfall.
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“With no supply solution available, demand destruction becomes the only rebalancing mechanism,” the report said.
Wood Mackenzie said oil prices will continue to climb if the disruption persists.
“Much will depend on how long the war lasts, how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and if the US Navy can ensure safe passage of vessels by escorting shipping,” Flowers added.
“Global oil demand of 105 million b/d will still have to fall to balance the market and in our view that will require Brent to push up at least to $150/bbl in the coming weeks.”
Experts say such a surge could have significant implications for major importers such as India.
Economic Fallout
According to Yogesh Jambhale, senior manager, research at Rubix Data Sciences, crude prices near $120 per barrel could push India’s oil import bill to about $220 billion and widen the current account deficit beyond 3% of GDP.
“As the country imports over 80% of its crude requirements, every $1 increase in crude adds around $2 billion annually to the import bill,” Jambhale said, adding that higher oil prices could also lift inflation by 40–80 basis points through rising transport, logistics and energy costs.
Wood Mackenzie warned the situation could escalate further if the conflict drags on.
“Supply volumes at risk this time are dimensionally bigger—and real,” Flowers said. “In our view, $200/bbl is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026.”
TOPICSStrait of HormuzThis article was first uploaded on March twelve, twenty twenty-six, at thirty-seven minutes past six in the evening.