Crypto researcher known as PlanC has issued a striking observation: the conventional methods used to estimate Bitcoin's intrinsic worth have been fundamentally misapplied. In his view, a properly calibrated statistical model points to a current “fair value” of roughly $101,000.
Speaking on the X platform, PlanC argued that a large segment of market analysts rely on techniques such as ordinary least‑squares (OLS) regression or standard linear quantile regression. These approaches, he contends, inflate Bitcoin's estimated value to somewhere between $118,000 and $130,000, reflecting a methodological flaw rather than genuine market insight.
The analyst highlighted a pronounced “decay” phenomenon observable at the median (the 50th percentile) of Bitcoin's price distribution. By incorporating a time‑varying decay factor—whether modeled logarithmically, hyperbolically, or via a log‑normal curve—the resulting valuation aligns much more closely with reality, landing in the vicinity of $100,000–$101,000.
Conversely, at the 1st percentile level, PlanC found no evidence of a decay effect. Consequently, calculations at this extreme quantile produce outcomes identical to those generated by linear quantile regression, underscoring that the discrepancy is confined primarily to the median range.
In summary, PlanC’s statistical analysis suggests that Bitcoin's true fair price hovers around $101,000, while higher figures stem from assumptions that do not withstand rigorous quantitative scrutiny.
*This commentary does not constitute investment advice.