The price of Bitcoin is nearing a pivotal point. An analyst has cautioned that the market cannot afford to dip below the $63,000 mark ($63,700 specifically), as such a breach could lead to a more significant downturn.
Conversely, the daily chart is subtly forming a bullish cup-and-handle pattern that suggests an upward movement towards $88,000. With these conflicting signals—an optimistic structure and increasing risk levels—the upcoming move may shape Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
Analyst Highlights $63,700 Risk Amid Bullish Setup
This warning comes from Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, who recently pointed out that $63,700 represents an essential on-chain structural level for Bitcoin. His analysis indicates that falling below this threshold could initiate a broader redistribution phase within the market.
If this level fails to hold up, Wedson identifies several potential downside targets: the nearest being $57,000 and then $52,400. He also emphasizes that these levels are subject to daily adjustments based on investor behavior across the blockchain.
Bitcoin must not drop below $63,700 ⚠️
A break at this crucial on-chain level could set off another downward trend in the market.
The subsequent risk zones would be:
• $57,000
• $52,400
• $48,700 (worst-case scenario)Please note these levels are dynamic and updated daily,… pic.twitter.com/nnMojP9PqZ
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) March 7，2026
However，the current Bitcoin price chart presents an alternative narrative.
On the daily timeframe，Bitcoin seems to be developing a cup-and-handle formation which began around February 8 and completed its cup phase by March 4. The market is now consolidating within what constitutes the handle part of this pattern.
If Bitcoin manages to break through its neckline near$74，500,the pattern indicates potential growth by approximately18%towards$88，100。
If you’re interested in more insights like this one sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here。
<img decoding="async" src="https://cnews24.ru/uploads/65c/65c38dfac1912cfccd797e72be5ab511b456b596.jpg" alt="Bullish $BTC Pattern”>
Bullish $BTC Pattern: TradingView
This creates an intriguing contradiction: while there’s potential for bullish breakout over10%above current prices,the critical support identified by our expert lies just slightly lower down。
This means even though chart patterns appear promising,the nearby risk threshold might dictate where things go next。To gain further clarity,we’ll examine on-chain data now。
Bullish Accumulation Among Whales and Mid-Term Holders
On-chain activity currently shows signs of optimism .
One strong indicator comes from Bitcoin’s Holder Net Position Change , which tracks accumulation among wallets holding coins for155days or longer . When this metric rises , it usually signals investors prefer holding rather than selling .
Since February8 , when we first saw signs of cup formation , there has been significant growth in this metric . The30-day net position change surged from about5434$ BTC to over41107$ BTC byMarch7 . That represents650 %growth duringcup formation period !
<img decoding=“async” src=“https://cnews24.ru/uploads/032/032a1d84ba6497917433ea49d760681144d881e7.jpg” alt=“$BTC Hodlers”>
$BTC“Hodlers”: Glassnode
This notable increase suggests mid-to-long term holders have been accumulating during consolidation phases reinforcing expectations surrounding possible breakouts or rebounds ahead !
Whale behaviors also back up positive sentiment here too!
The numberofentitiesholdingatleast1000$btc’hasgraduallyincreasedsinceFebruary21.Duringthatperiod,countrosefrom1264addressestoaround1280approachinghighestlevelsseenmonth-on-month.
DespitebriefpullbackbetweenMarch4and5(whaleaddresscountslightly dipped),overalltrendcontinuesrising!
<imgdecoding='async'src='http s:/ cnews24.ru/uploads/f45/f451c4d023157446ad87b04e9de8e1 c485ad9ac6.jpg'alt='$btcWhales’>
$btcWhales:‘Glassnode
Together,bothmetricsindicatelargerinvestorsandcommittedholdersquietlyaddingexposurealigningwithbullishchartpattern.however,noteverylongtermcohortsharesoptimismhere!
Certain Long-Term Holders Are Gradually Reducing Their Exposure
Whilewhalesandmidtermholdersaccumulate,someothersappearontheoppositepath.
DatafromBitcoinHODLWaveswhichtrackhowlongcoinsremain dormantshowsdeclineamong3-5yearholdercohort.
Thisgroupheldapproximately11.49%ofcirculatingsupplyonFebruary5.ByMarch7,thissharehadfallenabout10.94%
<imgdecoding='async'src='http s:/ cnews24.ru/uploads//74f74f08f245408adfb84fe8eed1b51558 e801 b5646.jpg'alt='OGHoldersKeepDumping:
Glassnode
ThepercentagechangeappearsminorbutrepresentsmeaningfulshiftwhenappliedtoBitcoinsfixedsupply.Adeclineinthiscohortindicatesoldercoinsre-enteringcirculation,suggestingsomelonger-termholdersmaybedistributing.
Thiscreatesunusualdynamicwhilewhalesmidtermholdersonlineaccumulatingolderholderslessconvincedaddingexposureintroducingasubtlesourceofsupplypressure.
ThatdivergencemakeskeysupportlevelsWedsonsidentifiedevenmorecritical!
$63000LevelCouldDecideNextPriceMove
AbroaderFibonacciretracementanalysisfromlateJanuarydeclinetotheMarchrallyalsorevealsimportantonchainlevelsfollowedbyWedson.Theselevelsmaynotseemobviousinitiallyasthecupstructureleansbullish.Becausetheybecomeclearerconsideringwider33%$ btc declinebetweenJan28-Feb6.
Thechartrevealsupportzonearound$63300closelyalignswiththe$63700thresholdflaggedAlphractalanalysisduetothedynamicnaturethresholds.
Ifthosefail,nextFibonaccilevelscouldappearnear56700(Wedsons57000)and52000(Wedsons52400)matchingdownsidezoneshighlightedinexpertwarnings.
Inotherwords,bothonchainanalysisbroadertechnicalstructureconvergearoundsamecriticalregion.ForBitcointoregainstrongbullishmomentummarketwouldneedreclaimnecklinenear74100.Thatmovewouldconfirmcuphandlebreakoutpushpriceuptoward88100.
Untilthen,Bitcoinpricecaughtbetweengrowingwhaleparticipation,cautiouslong-termholdingsweaksupportsituation.
Whetherornotsupportholdsbreakmaydeterminewhethernextmoveleadsto newhighsratherthan deepercorrectionfirst!
ThepostExpertFlags63000RiskWhileChartsEye18RallyWhichComesFirst?appearedfirstBeInCrypto!