The price of Bitcoin is currently facing significant challenges, struggling to regain the $70,000 mark. The cryptocurrency $BTC is hindered by a persistent downward trend that has limited its upward movements for several weeks.
Analysis of historical cycles and present on-chain data indicates that bearish trends may still be in play. Although there are occasional short-term rallies, structural indicators suggest that Bitcoin might remain below the $70,000 threshold for some time.
Historical Trends Indicate Ongoing Pressure
The Pi Cycle Top Indicator offers crucial insights into Bitcoin’s current situation. This tool utilizes a 111-day moving average alongside a double multiple of the 350-day moving average. When these averages converge, it signals an overheated market.
On the other hand, when these averages diverge significantly, it often points to an undervalued asset. Currently, Bitcoin does not display either extreme; instead, it seems to be at a midpoint within a larger bearish cycle.
Historically speaking, mid-cycle bearish phases in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have persisted for over a year at times. Similar patterns observed in previous cycles kept $BTC suppressed before any recovery took place.
The ongoing divergence between the 111 SMA and twice the 350 SMA suggests continued bearish sentiment rather than any signs of recovery.
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Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator Source: Glassnode
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) further supports this cautious outlook as it remains below the critical level of 1. This indicates many investors are selling their holdings at losses. Persistent readings under this threshold reflect limited profitability among market participants.
This scenario hampers attempts at recovery since investors selling at losses often act out of fear-driven impulses. Until SOPR consistently rises above 1 again, Bitcoin’s price may find it difficult to gain sustainable upward momentum.
Bitcoin SOPR Source: Glassnode
$BTC Continues Downward Trend
As per recent updates , Bitcoin is trading around $66 ,443 , remaining trapped beneath an active descending resistance line that’s been present for nearly a month . Repeated failures to breach this barrier indicate ongoing weakness . Without stronger buying activity , $ BTC could stay confined under this trendline .
The Money Flow Index (MFI ) reveals active selling pressure with readings showing capital outflows continuing to outweigh inflows . Global macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions are heightening risk aversion among traders which encourages cautious positioning while limiting aggressive accumulation strategies .
Bitcoin MFI Source: TradingView
Given these circumstances , it’s likely that Bitcoin will continue fluctuating within restricted boundaries . A drop below $65 ,000 would likely expose support around $62 ,893 which has already been tested twice during this week increasing vulnerability if sell-offs intensify .
Bitcoin Price Analysis Source: TradingView
Nevertheless , changes in macro sentiment could shift its trajectory positively if bitcoin manages to hold onto support near $66 ,224 while attracting new inflows ; then we might see challenges against resistance levels around $68 ,830 .
A decisive breakthrough past the psychological barrier set at$70K would invalidate current pessimistic views signaling renewed structural strength ahead.
The post titled ‘The Bear Market For Bitcoins Could Worsen Despite Recent Relief Rally’ first appeared on BeInCrypto.