Crypto expert Joao Wedson emphasized the importance of monitoring a key on-chain metric to identify the onset of Bitcoin’s next bull run.
Wedson highlighted that a pivotal signal for an upcoming strong upward trend will emerge when the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders dips below zero.
Based on Wedson’s data, the current NUPL value for long-term investors stands at 0.36, indicating that this group is still holding onto unrealized gains on average. The NUPL metric essentially gauges whether investors are sitting on profits or losses relative to their purchase price. Tracking long-term holders’ status is especially crucial as it offers insight into where we are within market cycles.
The analyst explained that a truly significant indicator occurs once this measure turns negative. When even seasoned, long-term holders face unrealized losses, it typically signals a “maximum despair” phase in the market. Such times often coincide with seller exhaustion, transfer of assets from weaker to stronger hands, and setting up conditions favorable for a fresh bullish cycle.
Wedson pointed out that historically, whenever Long-Term Investor NUPL has fallen below zero during past cycles, it marked the final stage before Bitcoin embarked on its next major rally.
*This does not constitute financial advice.