Although bitcoin has long been hailed as “digital gold,” its recent performance has sharply diverged from traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver. However, JPMorgan analysts suggest this divergence might actually bode well for bitcoin's future prospects.
In 2025, gold experienced a remarkable surge of over 60%, driven by consistent central bank purchases and increased demand for safety during uncertain times. In contrast, bitcoin faced challenges entering 2026, enduring multiple months of decline and lagging behind other major risk assets. According to JPMorgan's analysis, this growing disparity indicates that bitcoin is losing its appeal as a reliable hedge against market instability.
The past week saw digital assets come under intensified pressure amid declines in riskier sectors—particularly technology stocks—and sharp corrections in gold and silver, which are traditionally viewed as safeguards against catastrophic financial events. This observation was highlighted by analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
This downturn has also impacted spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to both bitcoin and ether, reflecting widespread pessimism among institutional investors as well as retail participants. Additionally, the stablecoin market has contracted alongside these trends, further underscoring the bearish sentiment prevailing across digital asset markets.
'Catastrophic Scenario'
Despite these headwinds, JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook on bitcoin over the longer term.
The report notes that while gold outperformed bitcoin since October last year—with notably higher volatility—this very volatility makes bitcoin comparatively more appealing than gold at present.
Theoretically speaking, if bitcoin were to exhibit volatility levels similar to those recently observed in gold markets, its price would need to soar close to $266,000 in order to match the investment scale seen in gold holdings—a scenario analysts deem improbable within this year’s timeframe. Yet this relatively low volatility highlights an important aspect: it underscores the latent potential for bitcoin to emerge as a credible safe haven asset moving forward.
“Although reaching $266k adjusted for volatility relative to gold seems unrealistic during this year,” the analysts explained, “it illustrates significant upside potential over time once negative sentiment reverses and when investors begin viewing bitcoin on par with gold as an effective hedge against catastrophic risks.”
For further insights: Bitcoin approaches pre-election support level amid stalled ETF inflows – Citi reports