Over the past week, Binance accounted for 42.8% of the total spot trading volume but absorbed nearly 79.7% of net selling pressure among five leading exchanges, as reported by Traderview.
This disparity prompts an important question: does a platform need to dominate most of the market to dictate overall price levels?
The answer is no. What truly matters is that the venue serves as the primary location where prices are actively discovered.
Between February 2nd and 3rd, Binance experienced its largest Bitcoin inflows this year, with approximately 56,000 to 59,000 BTC deposited while Bitcoin hovered near $74,000—according to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfrost.
At current valuations, these inflows represent over $4.3 billion in notional value. CoinMarketCap data indicates Binance’s daily spot volume hovers around $18.5 billion and roughly 251,758 BTC traded; thus these deposits made up about 22-23% of a single day’s Bitcoin spot turnover on Binance alone.
While deposits increase sell-side flexibility by making assets readily available for sale, they do not equate directly to immediate sales orders with timestamps attached. CryptoQuant defines exchange inflow strictly as coins moved into exchange wallets and cautions that high inflows don’t necessarily translate into instant sell-offs.
Such movements can also reflect liquidity provisioning for derivatives trading or internal settlements rather than outright selling activity. The point isn’t that Binance “dumped” Bitcoin but rather that it became the marginal seller—even without controlling most market volume—because it governs key price-setting trades.
The Importance of Marginal Sellers Over Largest Sellers
“Net selling pressure,” according to Traderview’s definition, refers specifically to net taker volume—the difference between aggressive market sells versus buys.
This metric is often tracked using cumulative volume delta (CVD), which sums taker buy volumes minus taker sell volumes over time.
A negative CVD signals more aggressive selling activity where sellers cross spreads aggressively instead of passive limit order fills; it reflects who initiates trades rather than headline trade size alone.
Despite handling less total volume than other venues combined during this period, Binance sold nearly four times more Bitcoin on a net basis compared with all other major exchanges together—a critical factor because Binance functions as a structural hub for price discovery in crypto markets.
A recent academic paper from early 2024 highlights how both spot and perpetual futures markets on Binance lead Bitcoin price discovery due largely to lower costs and higher liquidity levels compared with competitors.
Research from Kaiko—cited by Binance itself—describes its platform as providing “deep and resilient liquidity.”
The Mechanics Behind Price Discovery
Price formation doesn’t occur uniformly across all venues; it happens where liquidity runs deepest — where derivative positions unwind fastest — and where arbitrageurs monitor closely—all qualities embodied by Binance today.
According to Kaiko data from last year (2025), perpetual futures represented about two-thirds (68%) of all Bitcoin trading volumes globally—with three platforms including Binance controlling almost seventy percent share in open interest contracts for perpetuals: namely Bybit & OKX alongside it.
When risks unwind within perp markets , corresponding hedges appear mainly via spot transactions . This flow prints real-time pricing signals , prompting other venues’ prices adjust accordingly .
Arbitrage traders act quickly across exchanges buying cheaper bitcoin versions while simultaneously offloading expensive ones ; such actions compress inter-exchange spreads typically within seconds . If connectivity falters , premiums widen significantly then persist longer .
An example illustrating this phenomenon involves Coinbase ’ s bitcoin premium —the gap between Coinbase ’ s BTC/USD pair versus Binances’ BTC/USDT pairing . This premium isn ’ t solely driven by demand differences but also stems from infrastructural disparities like USD vs USDT transfer mechanics , funding expenses , plus settlement frictions .
Speed at Which Moves Led By Binances Propagate
Tracking cross-platform premiums offers live insight into arbitrage health conditions . The CoinGlass Coinbase Premium Index treats such spreads primarily as indicators reflecting connectivity strength instead of pure sentiment gauges .
A widening premium suggests strained arbitrage balance sheets or clogged transaction plumbing; compression implies efficient functioning akin to healthy nervous system signaling within financial networks.
Liquidity depth measures how much trade size can be absorbed before significant price shifts occur.
KaiKo uses “1% market depth” – dollar value bids/offers lying within ±1% range around mid-price –as practical absorption capacity gauge.
Diminished depth means even small sell imbalances cause larger moves.
KaiKo-linked studies report depths exceeding $600 million at peak times though stress events may cause rapid collapses in available liquidity.
The speed at which binance-driven moves ripple through depends heavily upon how swiftly arbitrage capital reacts:
- If conditions are stable: a shock causing spread widening tends towards mean reversion within minutes.
- If stressed: persistent dislocations arise accompanied by wider gaps lasting longer periods.
Bases For Three Potential Outcomes Ahead
Binance currently holds roughly $4.3B worth bitcoin deposits representing inventory exposed risk.& nbsp;Whether those become actual sales pressures hinges upon ongoing flows,& nbsp;market depth,& nbsp;and inter-exchange connectivity status.
The base scenario: supposes deposit usage mainly collateralization or positioning adjustments causing minimal immediate sales pressure resulting in compressed cross-platform premiums approaching zero alongside restored network connectivity.
ETF flows lend support here—for instance Feb &‑&;02 saw +$561M net ETF inflows per Farside Investors followed next day Feb &‑&;03 outflows totaling -$272M.
If institutional demand stabilizes further,this could diminish binance’s role acting marginal seller.
Bearing case scenario:&nb sp ;binance continues dominating negative net taker flow even if overall share remains steady,premiums fluctuate unpredictably,and mean reversion slows down.Liquidity thins during risk-off phases,making smaller shocks move prices disproportionately.Funding skews negative,further concentrated open interest persists,and hedging demands remain elevated.Mixed-to-negative tape patterns continue pushing downward pressures.Binance repeatedly leads declines forcing others follow suit.
The stress case:&n bsp;persistent wide premiums indicate structural disconnects coupled with sharp volatility spikes.Liquidity evaporates especially outside peak hours.Open interest concentration surges raising liquidation risks.Outflow streaks sustain prolonged bearish regimes.Price discovery becomes increasingly centralized around surviving liquid venues.Premium fails snapping back,revealing fragmented marketplace plumbing.
The underlying narrative aligns closely with USD/USDT frictions,funding cost hikes,and transactional bottlenecks.Reuters quoted binance CEO late last year describing broader drawdowns reflecting deleveraging combined risk aversion regime dominated forced liquidations setting prevailing prices.
A simple leverage illustration: Even partial aggressive sale execution against thin order books allows binance effectively set marginal market pricing.The point isn’t accusing binance crashing bitcoin,but emphasizing when one venue absorbs majority negative flow,it compels others repricing relative thereto.