A new era has emerged where political developments influence market movements more profoundly than traditional internal indicators, challenging the significance of Bitcoin’s established four-year cycle.
Despite a strong rally in equities throughout 2025, Bitcoin’s performance lagged behind, highlighting a market increasingly shaped by expectations around liquidity and policy timing rather than general risk appetite.
According to the conventional four-year framework, early 2026 would usually signal a late-cycle or post-peak phase for Bitcoin. However, current price trends indicate that investors are postponing this shift, with policy signals taking precedence over the halving-driven cycle.
Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Seoul-based Tiger Research, explained to Decrypt, “Bitcoin tends to react ahead of time when markets anticipate quasi-quantitative easing. Given its sensitivity to liquidity conditions, it often leads broader market movements.”
The term quasi-QE describes liquidity support mechanisms implemented through fiscal or administrative means that reduce borrowing costs without formal asset purchases by central banks.
Changing Policy Landscape
The combination of pre-election fiscal stimulus and ambiguous monetary policies is fueling this transformation. Binance’s Full-Year 2025 and Themes for 2026 report characterizes this environment as one marked by “financial repression.”
The report highlights how measures such as Trump’s tariffs and public demands on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates have increasingly blurred distinctions between fiscal policy, trade actions, and monetary strategy.
This convergence has shifted U.S. policies toward lowering borrowing costs and managing financial conditions primarily through fiscal expansion and administrative tools instead of traditional monetary tightening approaches.
“The interplay between fiscal dominance and financial repression creates an inherently supportive environment for digital assets,” states the report. “Expansionary government spending combined with suppressed real yields undermines conventional sovereign debt dynamics while distortions in regulated credit markets enhance the attractiveness of alternative financial systems.”
In essence, heavy government expenditure coupled with artificially low interest rates diminishes bonds’ appeal along with bank credit availability—encouraging investors to explore alternatives like cryptocurrencies.
The document further notes that ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, governments led by the U.S. are pushing multi-trillion-dollar spending initiatives while mounting public debt limits Federal Reserve flexibility—raising prospects for quasi-QE via administrative channels.
Looking Ahead: What Lies in Store?
Policy dynamics are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory throughout 2026 alongside persistent institutional demand trends.
A key near-term driver will be regulatory progress on delayed crypto market structure legislation which now overshadows traditional on-chain metrics as a price catalyst.
Peter Chung from Presto Research told Decrypt, “With over $100 million invested in lobbying efforts by the crypto industry—and midterm elections approaching—there is strong motivation among U.S lawmakers to finalize legislation favorable toward crypto.”
“The narrative within markets constantly evolves,” Chung added. “Currently focusing on acts like CLARITY is crucial since they will significantly influence long-term industry growth.”….
Although ETFs continue providing structural backing through institutional demand , future demand levels will largely hinge upon regulatory developments .
Chung emphasized , “Policy decisions undeniably impact institutional appetite given their emphasis on sustainable fundamentals .”
Yoon echoed these sentiments , noting that governmental policies will determine whether remaining institutional interest materializes .
“The upcoming twelve months represent a critical period ,” he remarked . “If legislative changes fail to coincide with phases of liquidity expansion , their effectiveness may be limited .”
A new era has emerged where political developments influence market movements more profoundly than traditional internal indicators, challenging the significance of Bitcoin’s established four-year cycle.
Despite a strong rally in equities throughout 2025, Bitcoin's performance lagged behind, highlighting a market increasingly shaped by expectations around liquidity and policy timing rather than general risk appetite.
According to the conventional four-year framework, early 2026 would usually signal a late-cycle or post-peak phase for Bitcoin. However, current price trends indicate that investors are postponing this shift, with policy signals taking precedence over the halving-driven cycle.
Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Seoul-based Tiger Research, explained to , “Bitcoin tends to react ahead of time when markets anticipate quasi-quantitative easing. Given its sensitivity to liquidity conditions, it often leads broader market movements.”</п& gt ;
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В отчете отмечается , что меры такие как тарифы Трампа и общественное давление на председателя Федеральной резервной системы Джерома Пауэлла снизить процентные ставки все больше размывают границы между фискальной политикой , торговыми действиями и монетарной стратегией .
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Это сближение сместило политику США в сторону снижения затрат заимствования и управления финансовыми условиями преимущественно через расширение фискальной политики и административные инструменты вместо традиционных подходов к ужесточению денежно-кредитной политики .
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«Взаимодействие между доминированием фискальной политики и финансовым репрессиями создает по своей сути поддерживающую среду для цифровых активов», — говорится в отчете.
«Расширительная государственная трата вместе с подавленными реальными доходностями подрывает традиционную динамику государственного долга при одновременном увеличении привлекательности альтернативных финансовых систем из-за нарушений на регулируемых кредитных рынках».
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Проще говоря — значительные государственные расходы вместе с искусственно низкими процентными ставками уменьшают привлекательность облигаций наряду с доступностью банковского кредита — побуждая инвесторов искать альтернативы вроде криптовалют .
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Документ также отмечает что перед промежуточными выборами в США в 2026 году правительства во главе со Штатами продвигают инициативы расходов на триллионы долларов при этом растущий государственный долг ограничивает гибкость Федерального резерва повышая вероятность реализации квази-КЕ через административные каналы .
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