Justin Bons, a seasoned researcher in the cryptocurrency space and the founder of Cyber Capital, has made a striking forecast about Bitcoin (BTC). He asserts that Bitcoin is facing inherent structural issues and long-term security vulnerabilities that could lead to its downfall within the next 7 to 11 years.
Declining miner incentives may leave Bitcoin vulnerable
Bons points out that the security of Bitcoin hinges on miner earnings, which come from block rewards and transaction fees. He notes a concerning trend where mining revenues are diminishing due to halving events occurring every four years.
The crypto expert believes it is unrealistic for Bitcoin’s price to keep doubling every four years indefinitely. Such an increase would push its value beyond global GDP levels.
Moreover, he argues that transaction fees are unlikely to remain elevated in a competitive landscape. Consequently, miner revenue—essentially acting as BTC’s “security budget”—is expected to continue its downward trajectory.
BTC will face collapse within 7 to 11 years!
The mining sector will decline as security funding diminishes.
This will open doors for attacks like censorship & double-spending.
Eventually, core developers might have no choice but to inflate supply beyond 21 million coins, leading to chain splits—and ultimately marking the end! 🧵… pic.twitter.com/HqFmhW480L
— Justin Bons (@Justin_Bons) January 15, 2026
According to Bons, this situation could render the flagship cryptocurrency susceptible to various forms of attack. This vulnerability may trigger censorship issues and panic among users leading up to its potential collapse. He elaborates that such attacks could commence once miner revenues dip sufficiently low—a scenario he anticipates might unfold over two or three more halving cycles.
In his view, launching an attack on Bitcoin at this stage would require only several million dollars while potentially yielding rewards in hundreds of millions or even billions—a tempting prospect for malicious entities targeting the top cryptocurrency.
To address these challenges facing blockchain technology, Bons proposes two solutions: either increasing Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins, or maintaining this limit while confronting incoming attacks head-on.
The Bitcoin community reacts against predictions of failure
Bons also acknowledged potential counterarguments from supporters within the Bitcoin community who argue that security extends beyond just mining revenue; they view it as multifaceted.
Typically regarded by enthusiasts are factors like hashrate and energy costs as critical components ensuring BTC‘s stability against threats.
However, Bons contends that sheer hashrate alone does not guarantee network protection; rather it’s about how costly it becomes for attackers attempting breaches which deters them. His analysis suggests affordability for such attacks may arise over the next decade-plus making BTC increasingly vulnerable—a precursor potentially leading towards its demise.
It’s important noting while Justin Bons raises alarms regarding security risks ahead many members within bitcoin circles contest his outlook claiming he overlooks potential innovations that could be integrated into bitcoin mitigating perceived threats posed by attackers..
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