Parth Gargava from Fidelity suggests that Bitcoin might be entering a new phase known as a “supercycle,” moving beyond its usual boom-and-bust halving rhythm. This shift is influenced by increasing ETF interest, more favorable U.S. regulations, and the market’s evolution.
According to Gargava of Fidelity Labs, Bitcoin could be evolving from its traditional four-year halving cycle into an extended supercycle marked by sustained price peaks and milder declines.
He identifies three main catalysts for this transformation: continuous inflows through ETFs signaling steady demand, supportive crypto policies in the United States reducing regulatory risks, and Bitcoin’s diminishing correlation with conventional assets like the S&P 500 index and precious metals.
However, Gargava stops short of declaring the classic cycle obsolete. He believes that 2026 will be pivotal in determining whether Bitcoin adheres to its historical pattern of surging post-halving followed by sharp corrections or if it maintains higher price levels over time due to structural changes in market dynamics.
The traditional model has seen Bitcoin’s price peak roughly 18 months after each halving event — for instance, after halvings in 2016 and 2020 leading to significant highs in late 2017 and throughout 2021 respectively. The latest halving took place in April 2024, sparking discussions about whether this marks a cyclical peak or signals a fundamental shift toward longer-lasting growth phases.
Gargava compares this potential supercycle scenario to commodity markets during the early 2000s when persistent multi-year demand altered typical market cycles. He highlights three supporting factors: first is institutional investment via ETFs providing consistent capital inflows rather than sporadic speculative bursts; second involves pro-crypto legislative measures fostering greater institutional involvement; third relates to cryptocurrency markets maturing independently from traditional financial assets’ movements.
This maturation is evidenced by decreasing correlations between cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin with stocks (S&P 500) and metals such as gold or silver — suggesting crypto may behave increasingly as an independent asset class rather than mirroring broader risk-on/risk-off trends seen elsewhere.
Ultimately, while uncertainty remains about whether we have fully transitioned into this supercycle phase or not, investors will likely gain clarity over the next couple of years based on how Bitcoin performs relative to past cycles versus emerging structural support mechanisms driving steadier valuations over time.